645 karma · joined February 27, 2020
I’m sure you’ve also seen they type: brillant PhD, liked by everyone, natural leader, accomplished on multiple levels, perfect family and relations. These are the people that have been selected to be astronauts. How often have you seen one have a breakdown during a mission?
What incentives does a small, geographically limited service provider has to spend so much on R&D? So that they can get try to make awkward licensing deals for their awesome tech if they strike gold and get to be the first to develop 5G? This makes very little sense. Telecom equipment vendors are an actual thing. They're just not that well known to public. For the optical backbone, you have the likes of Ciena, Juniper, Infinera, ADVA, etc. (More well-known Nokia and Cisco are also heavy players there.) These companies are all system integrators themselves, and have their own degree of vertical integration. There are component vendors which specialize even more, although they are increasingly getting gobbled up through consolidation in the sector. This is partly because people figured that it makes little sense to develop the same transceivers or modems at 10 different companies when you can instead merge them and combine the R&D budgets, patents, and manufacturing know-how. This is the same reason we don't have 20 CPU manufacturers. This is advanced stuff with high R&D costs. His argument seems to be that it'd be nice to just have more people work in this field at regional telecom companies, because then some areas like parts of Europe wouldn't be deprived of a tech sector. The reality is that we don't need a very large workforce to develop the most high-end stuff, and tech, especially the high-end non-consumer grade variety, really is a winner-takes-all market when it comes down to it.
There is nothing preventing a big telecom service providers from buying any of these system vendors. That would also be very expensive and subject to heavy regulatory scrutiny to ensure proper competition in the market (buying a system vendor and then blocking the sales or price gouging your competitors being a big no-no). But there again people figured out in the 80s and 90s that conglomerates are actually less, not more efficient. Everyone is better off specializing in their own thing. The tech inclined people end up joining those companies instead, and that's really for the best. Is he really arguing that innovation and tech doesn't exist in the field? Where does he think it comes from? Some unnamed office in Shenzhen? Besides Huawei or ZTE, not really.
Imagine a startup trying to develop a very expensive solid state LIDAR. They don't have the millions in funds to go to a fab and go into production. They do shitty prototypes. But they get some attention and are able to sell/license their patents. In this alternative universe where patent law is much weaker:
1. The big corp can choose to ignore you and not buy or license the patents. Their defense will be that you are a non-practising entity since you have no revenues or customers. There is a grace period? They make the bet that they can just wait you out.
2. You never patent the idea in the first place. There is no point as there is no way for you to profit from the idea. The world never get access to the tech.
Now you're in the same situation, but you sell your patent to another entity because you can't afford yourself to sue the big boys for damage. You or anyone else you delegate should have no recourse at all?
Where were those increases in required DTC collaterals when TSLA/NIO/your favorite SPAC was going through the roof? The conspiracy just moves to whoever unilaterally decided to raise collateral requirements from 2% to 100% -- a 4900% increase, and nice and whole numbers that seem fully arbitrary. A situation in which people have settled in their accounts should not depend on some backdoor credit wizardry that ultimately damages retail investors.
There is a private network of charging stations in our area. He has a few stories about them.
One time he arrives at a station that disconnects him after 5 seconds. He calls them. Customer service says it's functional and nothing is wrong with it. He asks them to look up the previous charges. They all disconnected after 5 seconds. Coincidence!
He goes to another broken station. He calls them. Apparently they're not aware of it being down right now, but tell him it's a recurrent problem with this one. Nothing else is done.
He breaks his own rules and takes his chances on a charging station without having enough charge to go to another one in case this one fails. Sure enough, it's broken. He call them. He has to get towed to the next station, and they will pay for it, but that doesn't include his own transport. He has to pay for a cab himself.
He gets to another non-functional charging station. He calls them. They tell him it's a compatibility issue with his car despite him having used the same ones for the past 5 years. There is nothing else they can do for him. He asks to speak to someone higher up and to pass on his complaint. He never hears back.
He wasn't even discouraged by the long recharge times. In the end, it's because he was tired of being late to appointments and having to worry about this crap all the time.
That seems inevitably tied to the increasing specialization and efficiency of agriculture. What was the original reason for humans to spread out in rural area, if not to get some farming land for yourself? Economic activity isn't much tied to land use anymore. It's seems hard to fathom any reason why would humans just go back to rural areas if not for some unforeseen technology to make this sensible, considering all the advantages living close to large metropolitan areas provide – and no, WFH isn't it.
You have Jerome Powell telling you that "stocks are not that high" considering that the risk free rate just collapsed: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/16/powell-says-stock-prices-are...
If they want to go by history, they just have to look back at the last decade to see what this does to a stock market. There is no alternative.