we'll recalibrate eventually based on understanding what level of abstraction we can operate on. If these code bases become unmanageable then the trend will correct itself.
How are they doing fab wise ? I was a serious investor at around 20 dollars before Trump came in and messed timeline. Foundry is an incredibly hard business and idiots bought in just because of Trump, China and AI. I’m wondering if foundry made tangible progress in the last 1.5 years?
It’s the win at any cost mindset with the post hoc rationalization that intelligent people can do with politics being utterly corrupt to stop this mess. We should really get money out of politics. SV is the new iteration of “Absolute power corrupts absolutely”. These tech guys have way too much money and power. You’d think they cured cancer or something instead of capturing attention and showing ads.
really depends on what you work on and risk profile of such projects and your level. I'm sure if i worked at a startup just responsible for shipping features as fast as possible, i'd be going all in. At my work, finding good ideas is hard and LLM's help in that regard but you can't move as fast as if you knew what to do. In a small company, there is just an endless amount to do.
to AI verbosity and weird use of diction is natural, to humans it makes it hard to parse. The number of time i start reading long winded AI written design docs, and i just can't get into the flow after reading a few sentences and have to keep re reading certain sentences.
seems to be a general rule of life, some people are just born with the right combination to be really good at a certain game at a certain point in time. The only issue with wealth is that they can influence other games in which they have no ability just the same and that is dangerous for a democracy. Imagine if roger Federer was messing with the elections just because he was the best at tennis. Tech must be one of the few fields where someone believes that they are good at everything just because they made it.
my big issue isn't even the taxes, it's the fact that the money could easily disappear in bureaucracy even if it is collected. smh - the whole system needs a reboot.
i 100% doubt, one guy could disrupt the SV ecosystem - they might threaten to leave but they'll come back. The network and culture of SV which made these guys insanely rich is not something a few people moving away can disrupt. The rank and file might move to miami but the talented people will just find other jobs.
it's pretty scary to think that your last bastion of improving your self in this world (your mind) might get taken away too - then we'll essentially have fixed positions where capital owners and their offspring are perpetually the only ones allowed to make money.
the reason bay area is so powerful is the network of all the smart people there, capital is a part of it but i think the concentration of smart people is much more important so this notion of capital flight because of taxes doesn't really convince me much. Zuckerberg wants to be near meta AI researchers / engineers in the bay area not live in austin and i'm sure he'll pay taxes in order to do that (unless he finds loopholes).
one one hand, i think showmanship can be used to generate interest for something that is far off and thus allow humans to pursue long term goals and i think elon has used this tactic in the past for the right reasons but these days it seems like he just uses this tactic to deceive people - almost like trump.
no, i'd be more convinced if positions drop for tier 4 companies where everything is a mess. Companies like Anthropic have every incentive to build their system around AI accessibility and understanding.
If LLM's are supposed to get smarter, wouldn't they be able to wield agents for you? Seems like a skill with a short shelf life. In my day to day work i just use claude and it seems to spin up agents as it sees fit so I'm not sure why people need to coordinate agents to the max? If there is one thing i've seen in software engineering over many years is that sometimes software engineers prefer using flashy stuff even though it doesn't have that much benefits but they evangelize this stuff like it does. "Oh you don't use micro services and X,Y,Z for your crud app?", "Oh you use VS code and not vi?" "Why don't you maintain a data platform for your small scale data that can fit in postgres" so on and so forth.
this definitely seemed like something claude generated, i know because i frequently do all my research in chat and then ask it to generate a doc based on what we talked about and when i read what it generates the verbosity, the style it writes in makes me delete the whole thing. I would never subject readers to that.
the rich in society (corps, individuals) are so absurdly rich that they can keep throwing money till something sticks with almost 0 risk. If you believe AI is something civilizationally transformational which it is resonable to believe, then why not throw some money at it.
AI will just create a bimodal society which already seems to be developing. You get people who'll use AI for what it's good for and people who'll stop use their brain and critical thinking skills until we develop 'real' artificial intelligence which can continually learn and can exist on a powerful laptop rather than some super computer, then these things will be better than any human ever at cognitive tasks. All in all, i think we are human cognitive superiority will disappear in the next 10-30 years. The people alive should try to build a equitable society while they are alive so that the benefits of this technology benefit the many over the few.
They aren't just ideas, i read that in semiconductor manufacturing these old heads have a tremendous amount of process knowledge that's never been written down.
LLM's are very outcome oriented and i think this is where your observation comes from. You tell LLM you want something, it doesn't even question the premise and just starts calculating 100 different ways to get there. LLM's have knowledge but lack wisdom.
Well it depends on how humans organize society and what these autonomous AI agents actually become - In an ideal world, i wouldn't mind spending my time riding my bike, reading or doing things i intrinsically value and receiving a check every month and let robots grow crops, administrate our government, cure cancer etc... Of course, the rich humans can decide to have private armies of robots and just enslave the rest of the population or robots can develop awareness and they can decide that they are benevolent dictators and humans must accept whatever they propose or they can decide humans are not worth keeping alive. There are many ways this can play out and no one knows what the future holds.