joshheitzman

I use deepinfra directly. They have had a deep discount listed on their site for as long as I've been using them for that model and for v4.0 before that. I've used the DS v4.x Flash model from a number of provides and the inference quality at deepinfra seems to be as good as anyones.

There is a bitcoin futures contract on the CME and its been there since 2017.

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/cryptocurrencies/bitcoin/bi...

https://www.fxcm.com/markets/insights/bitcoin-futures-produc...

My own agent: https://github.com/fluxmoot/fluximp

I primarily use DS v4.1 Flash @ deepinfra.com with less use of GLM 5.3 Flash and GLM 5.3 @ friendli.ai

I use a locked down (i.e. many tools disabled; shell especially) setup of oh-my-pi in benchmarks for comparison.

I used to work on Visual Studio 20 years ago. At the time it was 30M lines of code with a history going back over a decade and about ~1k people working on it. Product cycles were measured in years. Time spent working on new features was measured in months, since no one understood how it all fit together we then had to spend years playing whack-a-mole with bugs, to stabilize it before shipping it. I regularly had to debug through large parts of the stack I'd never been in before. So did lots of other people.

Being able to work effectively in large amounts of unfamiliar code was an expectation for mid-level engineers (L62 if I recall correctly). Its not a new skill, but it is increasing in value again.

It highly depends on the task. So far, on the tasks I personally benchmark, DS v4.1 Flash @ deepinfra.com is always cheaper because their cached input price for it is so very low and their cache hit rate is so very high.

A PE for software engineering was available for a while: https://ncees.org/ncees-discontinuing-pe-software-engineerin...

But there wasn't enough demand and it was discontinued.

That's really interesting. On another thread someone said something about health insurance related contracts like that was some kind of slippery slope bad outcome from allowing prediction markets. I didn't think anything of it at the time, but our health system is so broken I'll support anything that shakes up the status quo. I doubt Kalshi or Polymarket will turn in to that, but maybe they'll create a wedge for someone else to create a health event marketplaces.

I think a lot of folks here think I'm debating this because I support prediction markets, but I could have cared less which way SCOTUS comes down on this. Now I'm rooting for Kalshi when SCOTUS picks this up and not regretting the time I spent on this. I try to avoid commenting on anything political, but I had a moment of weakness while I was waiting for benchmarks to run. Thanks!

"same kind of superficial level the 3rd circuit is playing around at here" - as you believe you're more authorative than the 3rd circuit, rational debate is an impossibility

"if someone just shows me my own argument back, as you did" - makes crystal you didn't read substantive parts of the document as both arguments are literally in that document.

The 3rd circuit literally said they are '"swaps" subject to the CFTC's jusridiction' which is literally the opposite of what the 9th circuit said. Thanks for making me use literally twice in the same sentence.

The reference to bingo was something that New Jersey and the dissent brought up. Direct quote that covers both: 'Because Kalshi’s sports related event contracts are traded on a CFTC-licensed DCM and depend on event outcomes associated with economic consequences, they fit within the Act’s definition of “swaps” subject to the CFTC’s jurisdiction. See 7 U.S.C. §§ 2(a)(1)(A), 1a(47)(A)(ii).

New Jersey and the dissent “pile inference upon inference” and postulate that anything from bingo games to pingpong matches will fall under the CFTC’s jurisdiction.'

from: https://www.courthousenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/ka...

Honestly, I have no idea what case you are resting if you think a petition to SCOTUS to hear arguments to settle all of this means its already settled.

Its seems like there is literally nothing you will accept to show that this isn't settled yet.

I asked about option contracts not futures contracts. As to futures contracts there are many that are not associated with anything physical (e.g. stock indexes, bitcoin, US treasuries, etc.).

> If states can place restrictions on certain types of speech (eg porn or abortion advocacy)

This is a matter of whether the state laws violate the constitution.

> place restrictions on gamblers within their borders

This is a matter of if state laws have been preempted by federal laws.

Again these two things are not like each other.

> Links to the split opinions?

Seriously? That is easy to find, so I'm just going to skip past that to the petition to SCOTUS that references both: https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/26/26-299/428759/2026...

Its right there on Kalshi's website: https://help.kalshi.com/en/articles/13823765-how-is-kalshi-r...

Congress didn't identify the markets it was regulating by common names or trade names. It doesn't matter if its generally called a prediction market, a commodities market, or a futures exchange. What matters is if it qualifies as a Designated Contract Market as per https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-17/chapter-I/part-38 so if you want to actually have knowledge of what Congress said on this topic your going to have read all of that.

There is already a split decision on this between the 3rd and 9th circuits so it seems likely SCOTUS is going to take this up. I expect they'll be the ones deciding if this in the domain of the states or not. If they don't pick it up then its going to vary by circuit, such that it will be in the domain of some states and not others.

> I’m not going to allow you to depose me

Then I won't ask you what the difference is between speculation and gambling. Instead I'll just declare myself the winner of this debate.

The commerce clause say hi: https://probiscope.com/commerce-clause-and-financial-service...

To fall under the purview of the CFTC does a contract need to be physically settled or be a derivative of a contract that is physically settled?

Yeah so? It is what is at this point.

And the 3rd circuit ruled the opposite. I'd be really surprised if SCOTUS declined to resolve this split between the circuits.

Probably without intending it you've gotten right to the heart of what's at dispute here.

The common language meaning of gambling is too broad and captures things that aren't legally regulated as gambling such as gambling (again common meaning of the word) with futures contracts. Sometimes gambling is dressed up a speculating, but one could argue that one can speculate as a participant in many card games since they allow room for analysis and aren't pure chance. This is what the legal dispute comes down too.

The other is the debate for the value of the truth discovery. Some folks buy it and others don't. SCOTUS will likely take the case to resolve the split between the circuits and we'll if the value of this even enters into the decision or it just comes down interpretation of the statutes.

What's the difference between a Kalshi event contract and a COMEX futures option contract?

One thing is written directly into the constitution the other is not. How are they similar?

Guess who decides whether its commerce or gambling?

I said 'commerce' not 'finance' because finance is just one of many, many things that is within the purview of federal law due the commerce clause.

> And taking on the feds too, that is a gutsy move.

More likely a wasteful move. Federal preemption is well established.

One of the things that comes with experience is more things moving from your personal unknown unknowns bucket to your personal known knowns and known unknowns buckets.

The substance is hard to see through the conflation of CS and software engineering. Do you actually believe that all there is to software engineering is CS fundamentals?

It's notable that you said "out code" not "out engineer".

Steam can absolutely be replaced. There's lots that could be improved in the process of sifting through tens of thousands of games to find the ones I want to play. I have Epic's store installed on my gaming PC as I still play Fortnite. It has none of the things I want improved over the Steam experience. Literally none.

Put up or shut up Epic. I'm unemployed so you can hire me to do it for you, but I'll bet you'd rather just whine about it.

From the comments here I can infer that it has a schema and in turn I can extrapolate that this is as much "for humans" as many other config formats that are deterministically parseable.

A GUI is a config format for humans as it can you show what all of the configuration options are along with text that tells you what they do. A GUI can also ensure that there are no invalid settings that are discovered separately from the edit session (sure it may not do so, but it has the possibility unlike whatever random text editor the user opens the config in).