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kilotaras

1,645 karma · joined June 27, 2012

email me: hn AT tboiko.com
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kilotaras··on 42% of adults rely on their parents for financial support
Rent (and imputed rent) going up does increase GDP without any change in underlying physical activity.
kilotaras··on As downtown Seattle offices empty, city facing years of 'zombie' towers
Aren't same instruments being used in Bellevue as well?

"No lowering rent" rules are making downturn worse, but the trigger is something else.

kilotaras··on The Egg Bandits Made a Thousand Times the Fine They Just Paid for Price Fixing
Eggs demand is rather inelastic[0]: price has to go up by a lot for demand to go down. Per your link Cal-Maine Food doubled the revenue while selling roughly the same amount of eggs. Expenditure wouldn't double and so you would expect a drastic increase in profit.

> small egg producers may have had issues with avian flu keeping their fairly priced products off the shelves.

They didn't had the product though! This is main part of the reason price went up in 2022. It's either that or no eggs on the shelves.

[0]https://agdatanews.substack.com/p/americans-really-like-eggs

kilotaras··on An OpenAI model has disproved a central conjecture in discrete geometry
Both 3n and 2n are linear, the broken conjecture is that you can't do better than linear.
kilotaras··on Waymo robotaxi hits a child near an elementary school in Santa Monica
> But if there are a bunch of children milling about an elementary school in a chaotic situation with lots of double parking, 17 mph is too fast, and the Waymo should have been driving more conservatively.

UK driving theory test has a part called Hazard Perception: not reacting on children milling around would be considered a fail.

[0] https://www.safedrivingforlife.info/free-practice-tests/haza...

kilotaras··on Why AC is cheap, but AC repair is a luxury
IIUC grandparent is in Norway as he quoted the price in NOK.
kilotaras··on Alibaba Cloud says it cut Nvidia AI GPU use by 82% with new pooling system
Alibaba Cloud claims to reduce Nvidia GPU used for serving unpopular models by 82% (emphasis mine)

> 17.7 per cent of GPUs allocated to serve only 1.35 per cent of requests in Alibaba Cloud’s marketplace, the researchers found

Instead of 1192 GPUs they now use 213 for serving those requests.

kilotaras··on Poland shoots down drones in its airspace during Russian attack on Ukraine
Two of the downed drones were on pretty reasonable path to fling back into Ukraine.

https://x.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1965668064865013884

kilotaras··on Swiss vs. UK approach to major tranport projects
> I thought that this kind of experience was reserved for Eastern Europeans

Being casually racist on the other hand is a time-honored pan-European tradition, proudly upheld by Swiss.

kilotaras··on Office is too slow, so Microsoft is making it load at Windows startup
Team X is responsible for feature Foo; feature Foo is slow; team X introduces Foo-preload, metrics go up, person responsible gets a bonus.

Multiply that by tens (or even hundreds) of teams and your app startup (either on desktop or mobile) is now a bloated mess. Happened to Office, Facebook iOS and countless others.

One solution is to treat startup cycles as a resource similar to e.g. size or backend servers.

kilotaras··on US Ends Support For Ukrainian F-16s
I believe a big crux is in definition of "war ended".

You (and Donald Trump) seem to be using "Ukraine and Russia stop shooting at each other right now", while Ukraine operates more under "Russia stops shooting at us for the foreseeable future, 20 years at least." Russia has previously broken a number of ceasefires and written agreements (including the infamous Budapest memorandum) and so Ukraine is not super trusting to agreements not backed by anything.

kilotaras··on Is the world becoming uninsurable?
> or you can include them in the broad pool, and the people with a full-cinderblock home in a non-flammable state pay $20 more a year so the entire endeavour can work

And you immediately start loosing customers to insurers that either did the former or left LA alltogether. This changes $20 surcharge into $25 surcharge, causing more customers to leave, causing surcharge to increase and so on.

kilotaras··on China's EV Boom Threatens to Push Gasoline Demand Off a Cliff
> cleaner air

I'm not sure that move will help much. EVs PM2.5 footprint, is 0.5x of ICEv [0]. Good but not game-changing.

[0] https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35760182/

kilotaras··on How good are American roads?
> IRI measures how much a car moves vertically as it travels over a given distance, and is typically given in units like “inches per mile” or “millimeters per meter.

How accurate are phone accelerometers these days? Could Uber/Lyft/etc. start collecting that data from drivers phones.

kilotaras··on Albertsons kills rural grocers with land use restrictions
In a supply-restricted markets taxes and subsidies are ultimately paid by a supplier independent on who actually transfers the money to government.
kilotaras··on Albertsons kills rural grocers with land use restrictions
There's a reasonably simple change that would allow application of Harberger's taxes.

1. Restrictions have to have a "controlling party": a dedicated party that controls the restrictions and can agree to lift it. Classical example would be HOA, but it can also be a seller if they want to sell property with additional restrictions.

2. The controlling party sets the price of a restriction

3. Restricted party can remove the restriction paying price set in 2 to controlling part.

4. The controlling party pays tax as percentage of price set in 2.

kilotaras··on Intel Honesty
> Non-housing costs are quite low in Taiwan. Food and childcare, in particular, are so much cheaper than California that it’s hard to believe.

Those are downstream of housing restrictions to a large extent. From "Housing theory of everything" [0]:

Consider a cleaner living in Alabama. In 1960 they could move to NYC and earn wages 84% higher, and still end up with 70% higher income after rent. In 2010, they could move to New York City and become 28% more productive, and earn a wage 28% higher – and reduce the surplus of workers back home, letting them demand higher pay. But since housing costs are so much higher, the net earnings and living standards of someone like this would fall if they moved today, and wouldn’t be worth it. The same would be true for plumbers, receptionists and other professions that allow other people to specialise at what they’re best at and minimise the time they spend on things like DIY and answering the phone. By contrast, top lawyers get wage boosts that are still sufficiently higher to justify a move in both 1960 and 2010, even after the higher rents they’ll have to pay.

[0] https://worksinprogress.co/issue/the-housing-theory-of-every...

kilotaras··on Iron as an inexpensive storage medium for hydrogen
i.e. the paper[0] states that first "discharging" produced 7.09kg of H2 out of 8.71 theoretically possible

the efficiency is super low, but again, according to the paper, "most of the energy input was due to thermal losses at the reactor surface (83.9%)", which also benefits from square/cube law.

[0] https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlelanding/2024/se/d3se0...

kilotaras··on Iron as an inexpensive storage medium for hydrogen
27 tons of iron oxide have a volume of 5m^3 and can be stored in pretty much a hole in the ground.

2.7 tons of hydrogen have a volume of almost exactly 30000 m^3, requiring storing it under high pressure in specialized containers. Hydrogen is famous for being hard to store without losses.

For long-term storage storage and losses are a problem.

> But the round-trip efficiency of the tank is virtually 100%. The efficiency of the iron-based storage is only 50%

Maybe I'm missing something, but why? As you mentioned it takes 29kj to restore 3 moles of H2 out of (3 moles of H20 + 1 mole of Fe2O3). Where does 50% comes from?

kilotaras··on MIT 11.350: Sustainable Real Estate
> homes to households hasn’t changed even as prices have gone up

Office for National Statistics (ONS) definition of a household: one person living alone, or a group of people (not necessarily related) living at the same address who share cooking facilities and share a living room, sitting room, or dining area.

By that definition (occupied homes)/households is always about 1, so homes/households is pretty much just homes/(occupied homes).

kilotaras··on Land value tax in online games and virtual worlds (2022)
> I don't buy it: As long as whatever they built brought in more money than the property taxes, there's more money to be had from building than from not building.

The lower the property tax - the lower "money brought in" needs to be for building to happen.

kilotaras··on Wegovy and Ozempic (semaglutide) associated with reduction in alcohol addiction
> "Everything is a tradeoff"

But sometimes things we're trading off are less relevant and so the equilibrium changes e.g. losing weigh is hard, because humans evolved in low-calorie environment and being able to stock fat was important.

kilotaras··on Are commercial "third places" a dying breed?
> A work-friendly cafe

Funnily enough, what you're describing is actually called anti-cafe

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-caf%C3%A9

kilotaras··on California Electricity Mix Live Dashboard
> no longer balances out if you say use 20kWH from the grid and feed 20kWH to the grid

Should it balance though? One would presumably feed into the grid when sun is shining, meaning there's a lot of supply (not just from you), and consume during the opposite.

kilotaras··on Many FBI agents are struggling to make ends meet. Housing costs are to blame
IIRC Houston does not have zoning in direct sense of the word, but has a set of regulations and restrictions (e.g. on height, setbacks, parking minimums, lot sizes, etc.) that still drastically limits options for buildings.
kilotaras··on Many FBI agents are struggling to make ends meet. Housing costs are to blame
Housing theory of everything[0] strikes again.

Situation: Housing demand outstrips housing supply.

First order effect: housing prices go up

Second order effect: your FBI agents are now experiencing financial instability and worries

Third order effect: your FBI agents are now more susceptible to bribes

[0] https://worksinprogress.co/issue/the-housing-theory-of-every...

kilotaras··on A type of bacteria that causes dental plaque was found in 50% of colon cancers
> Oh, for the ship-to-your-house version in May, we're dropping the price to $250

https://twitter.com/LanternBioworks/status/17699293904048991...

kilotaras··on The likelihood of unilateral solar geoengineering
Urban area is around half percent of earth area (2 mln km2 vs 510).

Improving albedo there may have some local effect, but unlikely to contribute significantly to climate change mitigation.

kilotaras··on A confusing probability question: Red and green balls in an urn

  > what is the most probable distance between the two points?
  > even if they answered/guessed 1/3
1/3 is not the most probable distance, it's the expected value. The most probable distance does not exist, but PDF(d) is strictly decreasing for (d>0).
kilotaras··on A confusing probability question: Red and green balls in an urn
Indeed, indexing changing probabilities is very unintuitive for most people. Here's another fun one.

There's two coins on the table that you don't see. The only information provided is that

a) one of them is tails b) the left one is tails

What is the probability of both being tails?

It's 1/3 in (a) and 1/2 in (b). The reasoning being:

1. At first both HH, HT, TH and TT are all equaly likely. 2. In case (a) we discard HH as an option, but in case (b) we discard *both* HH and HT.

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