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kristopolous

18,612 karma · joined May 27, 2011

https://getpostdelete.com https://siliconfolklore.com https://day50.dev

also

kristopolous@yahoo/gmail.com

I live in California...use the goog address for faster responses.

Currently working on day50. day50.dev

Contact me for more information

submissionscomments
kristopolous··on Astra can read and write weights to improve Qwen
obviously. unless you have the equivalent of a coin toss, no metric carries implication. Does naive noise give you nothing? The null hypothesis needs to be established for these particular evals with this particular model.

Doing basic empirical hygiene shouldn't be too much to ask for.

For instance, looking at early results on their model if your turn thinking off you get a 52.0% on their evals. That single flag recovers ~72% of their entire claimed improvement - base model, toggle thinking off, scores go up 72% of their improvement.

I'm still investigating various wildly naive modifications. If I can hit their numbers doing inarguably stupid things then it puts their substantive claims in doubt.

kristopolous··on Astra can read and write weights to improve Qwen
So let's assume a completely naive approach. modify any weight arbitrarily, run an eval if eval improves arbitrarily modify another weight and repeat ... do something like 5,000 rounds. Just brute force, zero-intelligence, random selection. how does the naive base case perform on N=20 random trials?

Unless you include a basic test like that these results are meaningless. Was there p-hacking? Why just these 3 tests? Did they try others and it failed?

I'm currently running this myself. I'll see if the naive approach improves results. Can't wait to have these in hand and have people call me stupid when I bring it up with empirical evidence, it'll be awesome.

kristopolous··on Astra can read and write weights to improve Qwen
what do you mean? this is just classic computing. It's evals and linear optimization ...
kristopolous··on Raspberry Pi Zero 3W and Pi 4 Model A spotted in device trees
It's cartel price fixing.

Other datacenter prices aren't up 500%. CPUs, tape storage, mainboards, racks, cases, PSU, infiniband hardware, HVACs, all price stable.

But consumer grade RAM? Up 500%. USB disks? They're hundreds of dollars.

Also low density platter is up 2-300% as well. Don't tell me people are building out datacenters with 16tb spinning disks, I don't believe you.

It's companies that have price fixed doing it again.

Their EPS are up like 60x. Their stock is up like 10x and we're supposedly like "well I guess this thing you could sell for profit at $20 is now $960, cool"

And what's micron doing with it? $35 billion stock buy back. Alright. Asshole prices it is.

Prices of cheap 10 year old tech continues going up at crypto asshole speeds. Everyone should be insanely angry.

These prices aren't going to stop until either a non cartel player enters the market or there's a DOJ that's not just a bunch of kalshi and crypto scam bros.

We'll see what happens when everyone hears "black Friday? Nah, bro, prices are up another 20%, lol"

kristopolous··on Raspberry Pi Zero 3W and Pi 4 Model A spotted in device trees
I've personally stopped believing we will ever return to a world where anything computer isn't at extortionist nosebleed prices as if they're made by Patek Philippe.
kristopolous··on Show HN: Swurf – Swipe through the real web
Funny story about 20 years ago I was at some party for I think EFF or PGP in sf, I had no idea what stumbleupon was and I met the ceo, it was already wildly successful and he described what it was to me and I was like "oh interesting idea, have you launched it yet" and he gave me the most confused look ... still remember it.

boom, jan 2007: https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2007/01/effs-sweet-16-party-su...

Apparently there's a mitch kapoor connection between the two

kristopolous··on Kimi K3.1 Pro and K3.1 Pro Highspeed
I've consistently heard the opposite from Chinese programmers. Maybe the performance is better in some tasks or maybe the sample size of San Francisco is just skewed.
kristopolous··on Investor-owned utilities charge 23% more for electricity than public providers
They have so much accountability. Everything is in public for inspection, they're subject to elections happening whether they like it or not, they have to follow strict laws and can be sued or even imprisoned, there's oversights and review boards. Depending on the position there's even television cameras broadcasting their work live. You can just walk in and sit down on them. In the federal government everything you do becomes public property and enters the public domain immediately upon creation. There's way more accountability...

In practice what the "small government" ideology actually does is get rid of these accountability mechanisms and put scammers and corrupt people in charge instead or relabels corruption as the policy through public-private partnerships.

kristopolous··on eMudhra to exit global SSL/TLS certificate business
The automobile key pool used to be small. Some Eastern European car manufacturers had only a few, the joke was they wouldn't get stolen: once you've been inside one you've had enough
kristopolous··on eMudhra to exit global SSL/TLS certificate business
Sure this happened in the physical space in 2004

https://jeffwerner.ca/kryptonite_lock/

People swapped out their bike locks en masse, it was a pain.

kristopolous··on Local Wikipedia: Wikipedia, but only for things a half hour walk from you
https://localwiki.org/

Been around over 20 years

kristopolous··on Median product "lifespan" has fallen from ~4y down to ~1.5y
Testing products, getting a feel for them, thinking about them, talking and exploring, I mean this is still there and it's long been the actual time-consuming part of making great software; where the soft skills intersect with the hard.

Maybe the technical stuff is more accessible then it was beforehand but the thousands of hours of the other stuff that leads to good software is still thousands of hours.

Quality has become less work, but only by a little.

But this doesn't mean people value the craftsmanship because they never did before...

It's always been simply a popularity contest and now it's that more than ever.

The question is, why are you spending your time building things? Is it to make things that are finely crafted? Is it the road to wealth? As a tool to get other work done? Just make sure you have an answer.

It's your time after all...

kristopolous··on Median product "lifespan" has fallen from ~4y down to ~1.5y
it's always been like that. how far back do we want to go? mootools versus jquery? flash? foxpro and vb? cp/m and dos?

software has always been a popularity contest

kristopolous··on DeepSeek V4.1 Flash 1017 (Max)
Found one https://huggingface.co/spaces/multimodalart/jev-decision-ind...
kristopolous··on OpenAI CLI
I've been working on something in a similar class for about a year called llcat

It was born out of the lack of LLM-native unix-friendly tools that work like cURL, awk and sed.

I couldn't find any so I wrote one myself.

I knew I wanted a reference that is stateless, explicit, low-level, and composable without modal settings.

For instance, instead of config files, llcat can index into files with built-in jq-syntax and line numbers. Then it can the save invocations for later:

    llcat --save invocation.json \
      -k "@~/credentials.txt:12" \
      -u "@settings.json:.[3].host" \
      -s "@system_prompts:8" \
      -m "@settings.json:.[3].model" \
         "@query.txt:12" > output.txt
and then

   llcat --load invocation.json { ... parameters you want to override ... }
It's easy to send to colleagues over chat or keep them invocations in a shared network folder.

Conversations are also just JSON files. You can have a different input and output one. This means you can do stuff like

   for i in *; do 
     # use a non-mutable conversation
     # apply it over a group of files with standard unix pipes
     cat "$i" | llcat --load settings.json -cr context.json  > ../results/"${i}.output"

     # or use attachments 
     llcat --load settings.json -a "$i" -cr context.json > ../results/"${i}.output"

     # or save the whole context
     llcat --load settings.json -a "$i" -cr context.json -c ../results/"${i}.output" > /dev/null

   done
One of my favorite patterns is this one:

   llcat -k @~/secrets.json:.anthropic -u api.anthropic.com 
   llcat -k @~/secrets.json:.openrouter -u openrouter.ai/api
Since there's no hidden state you can use llcat in shell scripts and get operational guarantees.

I've put a lot of effort into it and use it daily. If you can give it a go and give me feedback and file bugs, I'd love it.

https://github.com/day50-dev/llcat

kristopolous··on Muse exposes users' personal and business secrets when they share conversations
This is news? Didn't we all just presume that was what was happening? I mean they're a data mining company.
kristopolous··on DeepSeek V4.1 Flash 1017 (Max)
well no of course not ... but they do this for qwen 3.8 27b, and decision models like this https://artificialanalysis.ai/articles/artificial-analysis-d...

this one is especially annoying ... i can run these on lots of hardware but there's vast differences in many aspects.

Whether I'm getting a good deal isn't what I'm thinking about if I'm getting garbage results. It's more about why am I wasting my time on the wrong tool.

I mean what I really want is a more reliable classic eval benchmark for the decision models that I can easily deploy, like the official ollama ones: https://ollama.com/library?sort=newest

perplexity has a 27b decision then there's a 3b from liquidai and another 600M one. Then there's one called kev and bespoke has nimble-v3. clef from cloudflare is there along with strands-decider from aws. Then there's laya and tev1 ... I mean the AA page seems to be the only real third party doing benchmark and evals on it but most of these are missing from it. It has a lot to be desired.

And you go over to HF and it's even more mysterious https://huggingface.co/models?pipeline_tag=text-classificati...

Maybe an agentic eval framework that tests anything that hits 100 downloads would be a decent weekend project...

Also there's like wildly different tasks. choices versus noul have way different performances and also if you are doing things like text classification such as using it for theme extraction, I mean this does work with nimble-v3 but d1 gives mostly noise and pplx-decider is in between and their performance degradation curves are dramatically different depending on the input-token length.

This is all going to be bitter lessoned eventually but I can't just sit on my hands and wait around 12 months.

So now I have a proxy that looks at the input size and do dynamic routing and sometimes fire off both and do ensemble weightings ... I mean why do I have to be clever here, this is a generic problem.

I had to discover all this myself and I really shouldn't have to do that...I guess I'm just expecting some quant results from AA that they aren't in the business of providing.

kristopolous··on DeepSeek V4.1 Flash 1017 (Max)
AA prices are always kind of hand wavy for open models. I mean if you rent a cheap gpu and run inference yourself...or heck, what about a cpu instance with a bunch of ram, you can do that with llama.cpp for under a $1/hour. Ok not that, so are we talking about the median spot price per token from a basket of inference providers? Which ones? They actually vary quite a bit, even on openrouter, for this particular deepseek checkpoint it's between $0.15 and $1.20 ... that's like 8x spread...

They have some math here https://artificialanalysis.ai/methodology but ok how are the prices weighted among the providers... and even if you do that 7:2:1 math it doesn't match the providers. Specifically the model in question: https://artificialanalysis.ai/models/deepseek-v4-1-flash-101... doesn't match the first listed provider https://deepinfra.com/deepseek-ai/DeepSeek-V4.1-Flash-1017

Do the math yourself, it's actually $0.08 not the AA claimed $0.10 (and that's the more expensive of the two pricing tiers). That's a pretty large error bar.

Also many of the providers are now doing "peak" and "offpeak" pricing (deepseek.com itself for instance) so it can differ dramatically. These "peak" times depend on where the service is most popular. You can basically ride "off-peak" pricing by cascading from global provider to global provider.

The majority of the time taken in an inference call is doing the inference so the extra latency of traveling across an ocean is actually a fairly small wall-clock tax here. People still seem to be partial to nearby servers for ai-related workloads but really, try some decent ones 10,000 km away, you probably won't notice.

I know AA thinks highly of the price metric (I've been to their events, even have their hat, they brag about it) but I have learned to ignore it as noise.

It's an especially strange metric with open-weights decision models. I mean I can run those on my laptop ... cost is very abstract there.

But for closed-source models with only a handful of providers (sometimes just 1) great, the price is a very reasonable number.

For the open models a more useful thing would be like "100 tok/s spot price build" and then it's using pcpartpicker or something in some kind of partnership and can query a build for buying a machine right now that can achieve a certain benchmark number and maybe something for less interactive workloads like "5 tok/s". Of course getting some base unit of power cost in there might be important as well since the power bill is the majority of what you pay for when you rent a commodity gpu.

kristopolous··on 16-bit fully functional DIY magnetic core memory
I thought they meant bus width ...still impressed for entirely unexpected reasons.
kristopolous··on Show HN: Llmspeed – feel how fast a local LLM runs before you buy the hardware
just go rent one for a few minutes and try it out ... it'll cost you well under $0.50 if you're just trying to get a feel for if it's right for you. There's a lot of things like context window that this doesn't capture.

Depending on who you sign up for, that's within the introductory credits (usually like 5-10$) so it's actually $0.

kristopolous··on ICE Planning $100M 'Nightmare' Domestic Spy Program
Being on the side of human rights watch, amnesty international, doctors without borders, the red cross, oxfam, and the un about the classification of a war strategy isn't antisemitism

People with Nazi tattoos who make songs called heil hitler and chanting "Jews will not replace us" on the far right passing around protocols of the elders of Zion calling human rights watch "the actual antisemites" doesn't make it so.

Words have meaning and lying criminal hate mongering scam artists who are viscerally and proudly antisemitic slandering human rights organizations... I mean you take scam artists and conmen and all of a sudden there's this shroud labeled political identity that they tie around their hips and now their crimes qualify them to scam the civic government?

No.

kristopolous··on ICE Planning $100M 'Nightmare' Domestic Spy Program
Look what the Europeans did from their antisemitism in the 1940s. We need to criminalize hate politics like we've banned other antisocial behaviors such as assault and rape. This just feels so obvious to me. Political hatemongering isn't some mystifying slippery ghost.

But no we're like "oh so we have one candidate that wants to adjust the budget to fund some libraries and this other one that wants to build concentration camps and imprison transgendered people. Alright, let's allow both on the ballot"

Being a violent hateful ignorant bigot isn't a qualifying condition for administering civic life.

kristopolous··on IRCv3
Has that caught on? I last used it 15 years ago and it was great but I haven't seen it anywhere
kristopolous··on IRCv3
reminds me that fortran has a modern website: https://fortran-lang.org/
kristopolous··on IRCv3
Yes. usenet, however, used to be social media. It was like text-only reddit.
kristopolous··on IRCv3
sarcasm?
kristopolous··on IRCv3
like in enterprise? the browsers stopped shipping with ftp support I think 5 years ago.
kristopolous··on IRCv3
I thought of that ... you could put it in the list but I wouldn't unless you're talking cron. I mean when I started it was like mail bob@froggy.ucla.edu and bob would open up pine or emacs and not get any spam or have to do anything crazy and we'd have a conversation.

that modality is long dead. we still have email but it's not that same ... I however could take mirc from like 1995 and still use everything.

kristopolous··on IRCv3
If you look at "old" internet: fidonet telnet bitnet ftp fsp wais netnews whois++ gopher relaynet ... i mean irc is one of the only ones that is still used, and mostly as it was 35 years ago. Pretty impressive.

People love knocking on IRC but people are still on it, still using it...

kristopolous··on The Lightbulb Computer
still researching them ... some of these look like garbage ... i'll come back to this thread in a few days when i find something decent. I don't want high nits or resolution, just want to be able to send pixels and not have it be noisy and get a response in under 500ms.
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