1,125 karma · joined August 30, 2021
So we're back to square one, and your productivity increase has a ceiling that's much lower than 5x, let alone 20x. There's a limit on how many things one can keep track of, how many code changes one can reason about.
The new program won't be any easier on that front. It literally doesn't have an original writer. So the new program will certainly be maintained and updated by a LLM, at which point I wonder if the language switch mattered at all?
Not too long ago, people were fighting to throw money at them. That might be the sign that we're past the peak of inflated expectations and going down towards the through of disillusionment .
If I need to _really_ search, something that would take comparing multiple links, I go to Claude/ChatGPT directly.
Just yesterday, I was looking for a small tool, I didn't really know the name, but had a picture. My first reflex has been to paste the picture in Claude, and ask it to find me places where I could buy it, that delivered in my country.
Try to come up with a job that both doesn't produce anything physical, and can't be done by AI.
The last thing we wanted was for an "Isn't it neat?!" hacked-together demo to be mistaken for something shippable, if workable at all.
It's not even a screen size issue. I couldn't imagine diving into anything remotely serious without being able to open a new tab and search a specific term/concept/fact in a quarter of a second, without having to fight the autocorrect at every step of the process.
Obviously not, otherwise the four models would be called Copilot, as well as the harness.
The problem with the "double the work" narrative is it ignores the second order effect. You can do twice the work, but so does everyone else. You doubled the supply, was there a massive pent-up demand for lawyers or accountants at the current price point?
It's quite a leap to assume any kind of issue would require a $100 subscription. Plumbing, mechanics, electricity ... The issues are usually far easier to trace and debug than in software, because the systems have been designed by smarter people.
You're not buying some arcane and complex solution, you're buying the convenience of not watching a couple of youtube videos or articles of someone troubleshooting the exact issue you're having.
That's quite a leap to assume there's a ton of money to be made with the casual users sending perhaps a couple of messages a day to real an email and draft a response.
Everyone I know is in the process of getting A.C installed but installers can't cope with the level of demand. There's some ideological resistance, but understand the change happened as close to overnight as you'll get when talking about the climate.