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nonchalance

962 karma · joined July 24, 2013

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nonchalance··on Everpix, Snapchat, and the Startup Lie
It's a numbers game. Let's say that 99% of your investments flop. That means the 1% of successful investments have to make up for all of the losses from the others (and earn a return). To earn a total return of Y%, you need that 1% of investment to earn (100+Y)x returns. If you want to do this annualized over a 5 or 10 year investment, the required return jumps dramatically (and you start talking about 1000x deals)
nonchalance··on Tesla: Third Model S fire in past two months
Criticisms of Tesla are quickly flagged off the front page
nonchalance··on Tesla: Third Model S fire in past two months
Far from it: Tesla was the one that came out and said they had the safest car on the road. Even when NHTSA said it wasn't appropriate, Tesla flaunted a 5.4 star rating. Tesla supporters came out and said the first fire was a fluke. They came out and said the second is a fluke. Now the third time is a conspiracy?

It's possible that there's an engineering flaw or issue with new components that underlies the problem. That is a possibility. To deny it is to be delusional. We don't know what's wrong yet, and denying the problem exists prolongs the discovery process

nonchalance··on TWTR
WS is the ticketmaster of the financial world: public companies, private corporations, startups, VCs, angel investors, investment firms, hedge funds, and HNWIs all blame wall street for some reason, yet they thrive on the services WS provide (and depend on the money made available by WS)
nonchalance··on TWTR
Until recently, neither has AAPL. Doesn't mean the cash disappeared.

GOOG has 56.52B in cash and short-term investments (as of end of september). It's on GOOG's books but could easily be paid out (either directly or in the form of a share buyback)

nonchalance··on TWTR
It's also dangerous to assume that all companies must be profitable from day one. Facebook is a good example of a company that was "losing money" but was able to turn profits recently.

Which is not to say that I believe twitter deserves the market cap currently implied by the share price.

nonchalance··on TWTR
It only sucks to be an employee if his shares or options are contingent on a market cap above the current price.
nonchalance··on TWTR
The simple answer is that a share price is the present price to pay for the future cash flows of the company. Just because they aren't making money now doesn't mean that will always be the case. If twitter starts making billions of dollars soon, and starts paying that out to investors, then everyone makes money.

They "eventually foot the bill" if twitter doesn't make money. Your cynicism reflects the fact that many companies don't end up making enough money. But there are counterexamples like GOOG where joe public actually did fairly well

nonchalance··on Tesla lost $38M in third quarter, stock tumbles over 12 percent
The future is bright for Tesla, but not necessarily for $TSLA (which is all the financial analysts really care about)
nonchalance··on Tesla lost $38M in third quarter, stock tumbles over 12 percent
The problem is that the current stock price implies that they will be dramatically more successful than any other car company (electric or otherwise). It's all relative to expectations.
nonchalance··on Will Scala ever be enterprise-ready?
http://semver.org/

> Major version zero (0.y.z) is for initial development. Anything may change at any time. The public API should not be considered stable.

major version 0 was specifically designed for this use case

nonchalance··on Will Scala ever be enterprise-ready?
Does scala follow semantic versioning? It sounds like they should still be in the 0.x stage if there are enough breaking changes to merit this discussion
nonchalance··on If you got rejected from YC, your life is over
If your motivation is wealth, by far the easiest way is to work in finance.
nonchalance··on Hackpad
(somewhat controversial opinion) I would have rather heard you say that you do have an investment in Hackpad. Why don't you consider making an investment, especially if it brings value to you and USV?

As for conflicts of interest, I prefer to assume everyone has a conflict :) I follow ZH here: http://www.zerohedge.com/node/13972

> The reality is, critical readers should read analytic posts and the rest of [the internet] with the blanket assumption that the author is totally "conflicted." ... This turns the conversation to the content, and away from the author, the author's biography and the contents of their IRA account / blind trust. This (the content) is, of course, where the focus should be.

nonchalance··on Hackpad
How much has FW and co invested in Hackpad?
nonchalance··on iPad from T-Mobile with free monthly 200MB data for life
Expected some price shenanigans, and found one:

> * If you cancel wireless service, remaining balance on device becomes due. Total for iPad Air 16 GB $630.00

Strictly speaking, it's $629.00 for the iPad Air directly, so in fact this "free monthly 200MB data for life" costs $1

nonchalance··on No Morsel Too Minuscule for All-Consuming N.S.A.
The difference between this circumstance and the civil rights circumstance is that there is no party that is strictly better off with the NSA limited.

African americans are strictly better off when having the right to vote as opposed to not having the right to vote. Same argument applies for women.

The terrorist threat argument cannot be ignored, and it's plausible to believe that many threats against american assets are hatched in the US and communicated in the US. Likewise, the privacy argument cannot be ignored. So in this case, we have a classic tradeoff.

To put it differently: are you better off dead or with the NSA?

nonchalance··on What Is Node currently $0 on Amazon
It's also free on Nook: http://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/what-is-node-brett-mclaughli...
nonchalance··on [dead]
Please avoid creating whoishiring posts before the bot!

Official thread: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6653437

nonchalance··on Long-Time SEO Jill Whalen Moves On, Praises Google For Rewarding Content More
The first thought that came to my mind was that she was unable to game the system anymore.

Turns out I wasn't the only one. gettheyayo (dead comment) remarked

> What's more likely to have happened: she lost her way of making money. She charged money and had to deliver. She no longer can thanks to Google.

nonchalance··on Duetto: a C++ compiler for the Web going beyond Emscripten and Node.js
> reducing the limitations and obstacles given by Javascript

What are these perceived limitations? There are fairly standard idioms and pure JS libraries for getting around most problems people find

nonchalance··on Java Virtual Machine in pure Node.js
The example makefiles appear to use javac.

Next step: Java compiler in node

nonchalance··on Engine Yard's sponsorship of RVM is coming to an end
Strictly speaking, they wrote:

> We are proud to employ and support contributors to such projects as Lithium, Travis CI, Rubinius and RailsInstaller. Check out the comprehensive list of open source projects we’re involved in below.

That fact hasn't changed (at least, not until they start firing people)

nonchalance··on Run Mac OS System 7 in your browser
Do you plan on making this open source? I ask because other similar projects were not made open source
nonchalance··on DMCA takedown on GPL-copyrighted code
Appears the entire domain is down (getting 403).

code937: based on the comments here as well as the comments from a year ago (http://codecanyon.net/item/pure-rich-text-editor-lite/discus...) , it is pretty clear that the OP misrepresented the situation. I wish you all the best as you muddle through this situation.

nonchalance··on The impending crisis that is Windows XP and IE 8
It's the disconnect rule: any article which requires disabling ghostery/disconnect to read or which have 10 or more trackers merit flagging. If the content is good, there is most likely a better home with fewer trackers / ads (which is not to say that I'm against ads entirely, but there is a limit)
nonchalance··on Profitless Prosperity
This all makes sense under QE and other easy money programs (which have a general tendency of inflating P/E multiples) but what happens if/when the programs stop? If 1999-2000 is any indication, those companies could easily see a 90% haircut and still be overvalued under traditional analyses (AMZN P/E is currently 1286.56, for example)
nonchalance··on Twitter’s Lack of Patents Seen as a Risk to Investors
Actually, removing RSS streams is what makes twitter a business. They hold the keys to the data and can charge customers for access to the firehose.

Your assumption is that the news consumption pattern ultimately dictates where the producers flock, which makes sense in the traditional journalistic business model. In a model where individual users contribute, the key factor is which platform gives users an easy way to speak (and I would argue that twitter has done a decent job at reducing the tweet friction)

nonchalance··on Twitter’s Lack of Patents Seen as a Risk to Investors
Twitter may not have much in terms of technical innovation, but I believe that isn't Twitter's goal. Their true value lies in the news-making ability (you hear about many news events first reported on twitter and relatively few first reported on facebook or google+ or other social networks). And in that sense, they have much to offer.
nonchalance··on Twitter to offer 70M shares priced at $17-$20 to raise up to $1.4B in IPO
Google tried something similar with the reverse dutch auction
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