orzig

Great quote, I bet it was very true in 1989 (34 years ago!)

I'm not going to try to prove the opposite, but after some number of DECADES it's worth checking on followup research. Here are some good places to start:

https://ux.stackexchange.com/questions/30682/are-there-any-r...

https://skeptics.stackexchange.com/questions/4355/is-using-a...

I don't have a horse in the race, but maybe before jumping to conclusions people should read the reactions of students themselves? They're very easy to find:

https://www.independent.com/2022/07/27/mixed-reviews-ucsb-mu...

It's no puff piece, and students aren't uniformly positive, but it's a reminder that there are many trade-offs in life, and some are pretty open to it

"Minutes to learn ... A lifetime to master" Not anymore!

Thank you for sharing your prompt! I hear people talking about how much ChatGPT has changed their life and I sometimes feel like I am accidentally using an entirely different product – it’s definitely worth $20 a month but I find myself disappointed more than half the time that I reach for it. I will try some of the ideas from your prompt for my work context.

Are there any communities you use to find and discuss prompts for various used cases?

I’ve found LLMs to be good for those sorts of vague “remember that thing like this?” searches. Bing (with GPT) or even Bard with potentially better search integration are both worth a try.

To +1 and say the same thing another way: If you don't like their strategy, don't buy their stock. Just wait for the innovations to diffuse Xerox PARC-style, and reap the benefits. It might take a decade and return 1% of promised, but the benefits will be felt by billions across centuries. That's how real innovation works. Future me thanks the current investors for their contribution to society.

Or maybe the current investors will get rich; that's what keeps them coming back.

Not an expert, but I suspect that getting them from the factory to the dock (and finding a dock that would not be a nightmare to maneuver through) is a pretty significant part of the challenge

Do you think of it as a choice, and what are the pros/cons compared to your feasible alternatives? What’s your long term plan?

I just participated in a hiring cycle at my company for a junior data scientist and nobody (candidate, HR, hiring manager) mentioned certificates at all, so consider that a medium negative signal. All our interviewees had a DS masters and most had relevant experience, so hard to see how a certificate would move the needle

Thank you for specifying that you do not have a family. More people should give their life context when they make posts like this, positive or negative.

There has been a time in my life for each type of work arrangement, and there will be a time for retirement. Talking without that context is just going to result in talking past each other.

> Magical list of majors

BLS has a good start: https://www.bls.gov/ooh/field-of-degree/home.htm

Yeah, me too. It's boring, but after the last decade I'm more than willing to accept that "cost" for the benefit of having a sense of what's going on with my contacts.

Does anyone know how to efficiently unfollow large numbers of people though? I was way to promiscuous in the early days and want to winnow down to someone I've actually worked/socialized with.

To be fair, the odds that the people behind that are still at the company are <<50%

I think that the better base rate would be stories from Tesla, etc. Of which I imagine there are many (I don't have time to keep up with specifics)

I’m willing to believe it, but you’re making a claim which should be trivial to back up with sources, so please do (or I’ll have to assume you can’t)

Maybe everything changes at $1 trillion, but I definitely see smaller (but public) companies leaving money on the table because it would require cultural change.

What took them so long? Is “new“ a core concept of “news“, and hasn’t this been possible (in select cities) for many months?

I have used it for several weeks, I would recommend a more specific question. On the UBI front, I had somewhat more success (though no consensus) with a concrete question on employment : https://consensus.app/results/?q=Does%20UBI%20decrease%20emp...

They also have a great Slack community and are rapidly turning out features. Everything I have seen suggests that they are competent and committed to the mission of making it easier to do good science.

It is easy to be cynical about the gold rush, but don’t throw the babies out with the bathwater.

Yes, I am a subscriber. They have little icons like “rigorous journal”, “systemic review”, “meta-analysis” and (if you give this any weight) “highly cited”. I believe you can filter by those in your search as well.

> The title says it: if you’re involved in drug or medical development and have experienced the FDA’s torpor, or vengeance, consider getting in touch; anonymously is fine. I want to make explicit something a few people caught in “I am dying of squamous cell carcinoma, and the treatments that might save me are just out of reach:” many of the people with first-hand knowledge of the costs of the FDA’s slowness don’t want to speak out about it, even anonymously.

> Context: I am dying of squamous cell carcinoma, and the treatments that might save me are just out of reach (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36827438)

Maybe "Waymo kills" isn't a great way to start this headline, especially given many other words would convey the actual intent just fine...

I try to think of each top-level comment like a sales pitch to get me to respond. If it smells even slightly funny, I pass. The next opportunity is just a 'next' away.

+1

We had a multi-month project to get a subset of our data considered 'clean', and it required a consultant, a stats PhD and many dev hours. It was healthcare, so on the high end of paranoia (justifiably) but nowhere it is as simple as dropping the "name" column

Read the rest of his blog; it’s wonderful and I’m devastated that someone I followed for years is going to vanish.

Thank you for giving us all some of your time on this earth.

Go wild: https://manifold.markets/

Detailed book length treatment of one such startup:

SAM, one robot, a dozen engineers in the race to revolutionize the way we build (https://www.audible.com/pd/1797102168)

It does not really support your hypothesis, instead giving a bunch of examples of inertia, which collectively make it extremely difficult to demonstrate a return on investment

I hate approximately everything about this article, but I'm glad that I took a second look through because this is a decent framework for the-thing-which-he-swears-isnt-prompt-engineering:

---

* diagnosis

* decomposition

* reframing

* constraint design.

Diagnosis is discovering the problem that AI can solve. This is the human part of knowing that a problem exists. Learning to ask the right questions, look at the different ways that the problem can be seen.

Decomposition is about splitting the big problems into bite-sized ones. Take the problem apart, examine it, and let AI help you determine your findings since it handles data so well. Instead of tackling the biggest problem, take it apart and work on the smaller parts to achieve small successes.

Reframing is about shifting your perspective and seeking new interpretations. Extrapolating and recombining the parts of the problem in order to identify the meta components. Perhaps a new way of looking at the problem may find a solution hidden in plain sight.

Constraint design is about setting boundaries for the solution. Knowing what to accomplish, and when to know it is done. Setting the length, style, and description of the audience can help AI understand its mission. But we have to know that first in order to instruct.

---

As someone who asks GPT and junior developers for lots of things, there are a lot of similarities. I don't imagine that is going away, at least until we wire LLMs up to a huge amount of rapidly changing, cross-silo context so it could understand "Fix the monitoring that slowed our recognition of yesterday's bug". So being thoughtful isn't going away. The author agrees with that (see above), but doesn't make clear where he draws the boundary between "being thoughful" and "prompt engineering"

I’m inclined to agree with all this but when I’m conversation with someone who has only ever been in a Manager schedule, what would you recommend I point to as actual evidence?

Specifically on the cost of meetings to developers.

Strong +1 (squared) to the quadratic voting suggestion. But I don’t think that it could be implemented in any sizable existing community, it is just too abstract of a benefit.

But the discussion around SMOL Webb communities, feels applicable here, the type of person that would get excited about a quadratic coding community is self selected to think more deeply and abstractly in the first place. Plenty of these people exist, but there has not been a Schelling point for them. (definitely correct me if I’m wrong on that!)

I’m like 95%, but not 100%, sure this is not a deep fake. Is there any corroborating evidence that he actually said this? If true, it should be easy, since it looks like a pretty well attended event.

Alternatively, I would love some pointers for spreading deep fakes at this stage of technology. I am no expert, but the counterintuitive statement makes me double check.