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rdj

389 karma · joined June 25, 2008

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rdj··on Beer on Board in the Age of Sail (2017)
A caveat being and mentioned in the article, that sailors didn't have access to the safe water of lakes and streams, thus beer. And as someone mentions below, it's safer to drink low alcohol beer than months old (untreated) water. I can see why people jump to the conclusion that beer was safer than water...and it makes for good cocktail hour small talk.
rdj··on TSMC's US builds won't make America great at chips again, says Gelsinger
I don't know his intention or whether The Register just framed his words to align with a political viewpoint. Perhaps it's nothing more than one industry person taking shots at their rival... but I'm having a hard time reconciling his current statement with his previous statements, specifically about the CHIPS Act and US manufacturing.

"Gelsinger added on the CHIPS Act: "Supply chains move because they're advantaged. So in that sense, I see chips [making], plus some of the economic inducements, as being a formula that I fully agree with looking forward. But we can't go backward on what we put in place for the CHIPS Act. We need to continue to restore manufacturing. We need long-term research and development." (https://www.msn.com/en-us/technology/tech-companies/former-i...)

rdj··on How much is enough to FIRE in San Francisco?
California does handle it differently.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1978_California_Proposition_13 - "by assessing values at their 1976 value and restricted annual increases of assessed value to an inflation factor, not to exceed 2% per year. It prohibits reassessment of a new base year value except in cases of (a) change in ownership, or (b) completion of new construction."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_California_Proposition_19 - Some updates about transferring to family, farms, etc

rdj··on SF's Anchor Brewing Company shutting down after 127 years
That's the sentiment in the industry. Here's some numbers from when the sale happened.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/japans-sapporo-buys-craft-...

rdj··on SF's Anchor Brewing Company shutting down after 127 years
If you are interested in the numbers, give Bart Watson a follow: https://twitter.com/BrewersStats

He's an economist that covers this for the Brewers Association. Based on the data, it's not looking good. Some of it is released in public reports and presos, others are member-only resources.

Here's a report from the TTB that shows the contraction:

https://www.ttb.gov/images/statistics/ttb-beer-2023-statisti...

Also, there are several industry talks that dive into the why...one factor seems to be that Gen Z just isn't drinking.

rdj··on L.A. watchmaker crafts $70k timepiece that may revolutionize U.S. watch industry
The old machinery (rose engine) and technique (guilloché) sent me down a pleasant rabbit hole, but the tldr:

Self-taught watchmaker turns hobby into profession and hopes to reintroduce "(mostly) made in America" watches. They retail in the tens of thousands of dollars.

rdj··on Age-stratified infection fatality rate of Covid-19 in the non-elderly population
The paper does seem to address this:

"Several previous evaluations (Ioannidis, 2021a; Levin et al., 2020; O’Driscoll et al., 2021; Brazeau et al., 2020) have already synthesized information on age-stratified estimates of IFR. Most of those used data from early published studies, and these tended to have information from mostly hard hit countries, thus potentially with inflated IFR estimates. Moreover, several analytical and design choices for these reviews and data syntheses can be contested (Ioannidis, 2021b) and many more potentially informative seroprevalence studies have been published since then."

rdj··on Ask HN: Security Awareness Training
If it’s security training for developers, architects, and technical teams take a look into the CTF style trainings (hands on keyboard, hacking exercises). We’ve turned it into an annual event (leaderboards, trophies, bragging rights, swag, pizza, the works) and the participants not only loved it, they have started to pregame, plan teams and held live debriefs where they talk through the experience and where it actually impacts their code.
rdj··on The Economics of Christmas Trees
We actually discussed a small train and decided to go with horse and sleigh next year, mostly because of upkeep and the ability to reuse that portion of the property for other things in the off season.
rdj··on The Economics of Christmas Trees
You must have tapped into our meeting...that's on the plan for next fall!
rdj··on The Economics of Christmas Trees
For us, the biggest issue is trying to forecast what additional non-agricultural projects we may be starting in the near future that would be adversely impacted by a specific piece of land being tied up for 10 years. For example, we're building an event center (weddings, meetings, etc) that will also include outdoor space. As we work through what that will be like, we have to anticipate how that outdoor space would be used if there are trees there or not. Other than that specific example, we try to anticipate sales volumes and then map out the experience...then order, plant and maintain new trees accordingly.
rdj··on The Economics of Christmas Trees
This gets into a bigger conversation about business models. For us, we are selling an experience that includes a tree. Artificial trees will not be able to replace that. But selling an experience is a low volume game and the revenue has to either be made up in price or via the addition of alternative revenue streams.
rdj··on The Economics of Christmas Trees
Right now, trees and gift shop.
rdj··on The Economics of Christmas Trees
Our place currently has limited attractions with several planned for next year. There is a gift shop that drives significant revenue, but was closed this year due to COVID. We offer free hot chocolate (small disposable cup). For the gift shop we have a multifaceted approach which includes buying things wholesale, making items in our shop, and partnering with other makers. Drilling and bailing is included in the price of the tree.

We are currently running the numbers to prepare for things like food/drink truck, sleigh rides, reindeer petting zoo, and some events.

rdj··on The Economics of Christmas Trees
It's not an issue on our farm. We have eyes on most of the property most of the time. We also don't stock any precuts, so a thief has to come on the property and do some amount of work to steal a single tree.
rdj··on The Economics of Christmas Trees
We cut our season off early due to the number of mature trees available. We're rebuilding and playing catchup. It was more important, particularly this year, that we were open rather than how many days. We get families that have been coming here for 30 years. If we miss a year being open, we risk losing them from coming back in the next few years. Our second metric was number of trees sold per day. We did meet or exceed both measurements.
rdj··on The Economics of Christmas Trees
Timely. We just, as in a few hours ago, wrapped up our season as owners of a u-cut tree farm. It's relatively small, just under 30 acres. But our family was just doing a post-mortem on what went well, what we need to change and making fairly detailed plans for next year and even several years out. I can tell you more then you want to know about the growing, spring/summer and fall care. The shaping. The labor to trim, drill, bag, etc. It's fascinating to see the impact 2008 had on planting and the resulting shortage of trees these past couple of years. I don't have any real point other than, been there, doing that, have the t-shirt, ask me anything. Oh, and this part of the farm is basically a side hustle to my normal 9-5 infosec job. Merry Christmas!
rdj··on Forget Fortnite–my son is still obsessed with Minecraft
My youngest child was obsessed with Minecraft. To the point I decided to check it out, ended up running a server where he and I and my two adult children could play. This lasted a year or so, before they moved to Fortnite. I joined them. I'm a good shot but can't keep up with the end-game build battles. Point is, games come and go. My kid and your kid is no better or worse for liking any particular game at any time. Just know it's coming...and going and enjoy it while you can.
rdj··on An 1814 Beer Flood that Killed Eight People
And closer to home: our beer flood of 2017. Although the only death was a little piece of pride, and a new IPA.

https://www.facebook.com/FarmCreek/photos/a.425132817617510....

rdj··on Why HN was slow and how Rtm fixed it
related but a little different (just FYI): some Intel nics can handle interrupt modulation. Decreased latency but wouldn't fix the open handle/scaling issues here.
rdj··on $100 Bill: The Fed Has a $110 Billion Problem with New Benjamins
Are these pieces of paper really worth $100 a piece or only the cost of the paper and ink? Since the notes never shipped, and likely won't, thus won't backed by the government I have a hard time thinking this is a $110 billion problem.
rdj··on Homeland Security Is Seizing Internet Domains Left And Right
If these sites are being seized with no followup legal proceeding, this is outrageous and should not be tolerated. However, if this is just step one in some sort of court case for piracy against an individual, fine. That makes it no different than getting arrested on the street, or having physical items confiscated with the later court case determining if you were right or wrong.

The larger issue may be, what the hell DHS and ICE are doing enforcing copyright laws.

rdj··on What It's Like to Work at Apple
A company I worked for in Atlanta did the same thing (pay the difference). However, I suspect this is still the exception, not the rule.
rdj··on NASA Ames’ Worden reveals DARPA-funded ‘Hundred Year Starship’ program
Interesting ideas. I just can't get past the fact the a Director as NASA actually said, "Anybody that watches the [Star Trek] Enterprise, you know you don’t see huge plumes of fire". As if, instead of drawing from science fiction as inspiration, he uses it as a blueprint.

You know what else we don't see, Director Worden? Human Teleportation. And Klingons.

rdj··on List of YC Companies
I thought that as well and then I remembered, they don't fund companies or ideas, they fund teams. These teams, may or may not change the idea the had when they applied.
rdj··on Ask HN: Who owns the idea?
"I'm the only one with the knowledge base required to make this business happen".

If the above quote is true, why did you let the other two become equal partners? Seems like there was a mismatch to begin with, assuming this isn't a detail you just now realized.

Have you tried talking to them? Maybe just getting it out in the open would fix some things. They may even be relieved and just want to walk away, at which point you can have them sign over all rights to the project, etc.

rdj··on I got feedback on my idea in Palo Alto today. Stupid?
I would have assumed you had a plan before you stood on the corner asking questions. Maybe you decided:

- how many people you wanted to talk to - the type of people (kids, working adults, homeless, men, women, etc) - the response you were expecting from the interaction - the number of responses you were expecting

Now, did the results of your experiment meet the criteria for your test and if so, were the responses actionable?

I would say you were crazy and wasted your time if you didn't already have an idea of what you were trying to accomplish. Otherwise, I'd say, "Great! What did you find out".

rdj··on Are Texting-While-Driving Laws Making our Streets Less Safe?
My concern with texting-while-driving laws is how do they get enforced. Do your phone records automatically get handed over to law enforcement if you are in an accident?
rdj··on Minecraft creator banks $350k a day, turns down job offers from Valve and Bungie
Not surprised. What could a job at either Valve or Bungie give him that he doesn't get now?
rdj··on Partnering with Microsoft: a cautionary tale. Also, ask HN: contacts at Yahoo?
Seems like a learning opportunity here. Could this have been handled differently? Maybe something like:

BIGCO asks for info/demo, you oblige. BIGCO is pleased, asks for more discussions, Q&A, etc. At this point, you present an NDA/Non-compete.

Certainly they could say "no", at which point the outcome is the same as it was here. Or they say "yes", at which point they have a little more skin in the game, and you have the law on your side.

I don't know if this is the answer, but it seems like a good discussion.

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