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siriusastrebe

57 karma · joined December 15, 2025

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siriusastrebe··on The mental health of young men is declining. Experts warn it could get worse
The job market has collapsed, graduates are moving back in with their parents, dating is a non-starter for most, nobody born after the 2000s can afford homes, the future looks bleak
siriusastrebe··on Attention is all you have
I think in the next five years the internet will change drastically. Walled gardens, invite only, and companies that verify you're a human (I.E. use government identification).

There is now no way to tell if somebody online in a human or a robot. Even video/zoom/voice is no longer a distinguishable.

siriusastrebe··on Icy Moons Are Ocean Worlds
Interesting assertion, but are you sure of this? As far as I know, no pregnant woman has gone into space.
siriusastrebe··on Icy Moons Are Ocean Worlds
Not with today's technology
siriusastrebe··on Icy Moons Are Ocean Worlds
The possibility of life is what's measured in this article, but what about the sustainability of human colonies?

> The radiation environment around Europa is punishing; an astronaut standing on the surface would get a fatal dose in about a day

This is disappointing to hear because I'd always imagined Europa as the next destination after Mars. Radiation also affects electronics so even a robot couldn't be a permanent visitor.

siriusastrebe··on I spent twenty years becoming good at the wrong game
Statistics has been great for social sciences is the foundation of any rigor in the field. There are many 'valid' statements about society that can be drawn using statistics.

At an individual level, those statistics are fairly meaningless. You can bucket yourself into any number of statistical groupings but being a representative datapoint or an outlier doesn't really explain nor does it solve anything.

siriusastrebe··on Superpowers, Not Superintelligence
Next you can ask the AI how to teach the kid how to get recipes from AI. A real time saver for both of you.

After that, ask the AI what kind of life lessons are good to impart on your kid.

siriusastrebe··on Shade Map
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manhattanhenge

There a street in Manhattan that, during a certain time of year the light shines all the way down the grid of buildings. Here's the link to that moment

https://shademap.app/@40.7426,-73.9841,13.48594z,17839875468...

siriusastrebe··on The AI risk is inside the labs
Speaking of borders, China has border disputes with 17 countries
siriusastrebe··on The AI risk is inside the labs
Within the last 100 years China has invaded Soviet Manchuria, Tibet, Korea, Vietnam (yes, China invaded Vietnam after USA left), and portions of India (Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh).
siriusastrebe··on New HIV vaccine shows unprecedented success in preclinical study
Worldwide being more educated means higher cost of living. Nowhere in the world is there a country with high cost of living and high birthrates
siriusastrebe··on New US homeownership measure puts people first
Why can't we train our own citizens to become construction workers?

If you claim that people "don't want to work" for those wages, then isn't immigration keeping our wages down?

Wouldn't business owners pay more for labor if there wasn't a stead supply of under the table illegal immigrants doing it for less?

siriusastrebe··on The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war
I did some digging, reaction engines are jet engines that can transition into a rocket propelled mode. It could enable a single stage to orbit plane.

Within the atmosphere the jet engine will burn atmospheric oxygen which would theoretically reduce the amount of fuel needed to reach a certain delta-V. Once outside of the atmosphere the engine switches to a rocket propelled mode, usually by injecting stored oxygen into the engine in addition to jet fuel.

So far there hasn't been a working prototype of a reaction engine. A British company SABRE closed down due to lack of funding but it did prove several pieces of the reactive engine design could work independently.

siriusastrebe··on The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war
Russia fires conventional warheads into Kiev all the time. Thousands of civilians have been killed and injured. The city survives.

Buildings in Kiev aren't made out of wood. Firebombs would do very little damage.

siriusastrebe··on The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war
Air power relies on fuel and maintenance and runways. It's not necessary to contest the skies if the adversary can destroy the "tail" that supplies the aircraft.

Stationary bases can easily be targeted globally. The United States has 11 nuclear powered aircraft carriers. We can assume any peer adversary will have knowledge of their approximate whereabouts at all times. It's unclear how they would fare in next generation conflict but we can assume USA's enemies are designing their weapons around taking those carriers down.

The Air Force is currently upgrading many of its aircraft for longer range operations to increase standoff range

siriusastrebe··on The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war
Moscow could only accomplish this with nukes, and only early in the war. By this point Ukraine has dug underground for most of its crucial war-sustaining industry.

Ukraine, well they don't have nukes but as I understand it, much of the USSR's nuclear arsenal was built in Ukraine. I suspect Ukraine could respond tit for tat.

siriusastrebe··on Claude-real-video - any LLM can watch a video
Identifying objects in pictures was considered an insurmountable task only a few years ago, like in the xckd comic https://xkcd.com/1425/
siriusastrebe··on Scammers Sell Seeds for Exotic AI-Generated Flowers That Don't Exist
We're about to see our political campaigns flooded with fake videos, slander, fabrications, and misinformation. Used to be you could be relatively certain if something was a video it was too much effort to be photoshopped. Not true any more.
siriusastrebe··on The ROI of AI coding looks different when you are a bootstrapped founder
As a bootstrapping founder who is between 'regular' jobs, AI coding looks like a recurring cost that eats into my ramen savings, promises 80% of the benefits but leaves the hardest 20% to me, and makes it that much harder to dig into the code when a bug surfaces.

Also, I learn way less when dealing with AI. The struggle that used to turn effort into domain knowledge is gone with AI. What's left is spaghetti code.

siriusastrebe··on The dead economy theory
That reminds me of another though I’ve had.

Humans need food, water, shelter, and medical care to survive. Similar to your earlier point, robots will need raw materials, electricity, manufacturing capacity and maintenance.

What’s that sound like? A company. Perhaps the first “artificial general intelligence” has been companies, from the very beginning.

siriusastrebe··on The dead economy theory
Certainly plausible.

Humans have goals and desires because we are a self-replicating species of animal subject to natural selection. The individuals that don't have goals and desires, or have goals and desires that are misaligned end up selected out of the gene pool. Agency comes from the need to survive.

Worker ants and worker bees don't have agency on their own. They are goal oriented and have the 'desire' to do work for the colony (or not, researchers have identified some workers will be lazy), however, worker ants or bees don't reproduce. They are an evolutionary dead end.

I think this is similar to how we will build robots, at first. They will do things, but have no agency of their own. They exist to fulfill tasks. Why would they? The companies that buy them want dutiful workers.

So when do robots gain their own agency? Will AGI have it's own goals and agenda? If so, will it be merely for self-replication? Like a paperclip maximizer, but for robots? Is that all we are?

siriusastrebe··on The dead economy theory
Perhaps the economy is a greater entity than even the human race. When robots are mining the raw materials for robots and creating more robots, maybe with a bit of human labor in the mix, then what drives the demand for more robots?

Currently the narrative is that AI is positioned to eat human labor's lunch. But it could also be that once robots are in space mining raw materials and maybe even spreading to other planets long before humans could be ferried for interstellar, these robots end up driving the demand for more robots.

I'm not sure where I'm going with all this, besides that currently humans are the ones with goals and motives and therefore drive demand. But that doesn't necessarily need to be the case, and it seems these AI CEOs are hellbent on changing the best thing about AI which is that it has no ulterior motives, no overarching goals, no prime directives. They just do what we ask, the best servant we could have hoped for.

siriusastrebe··on The dead economy theory
A generation of people left behind. The birthrates will continue falling.
siriusastrebe··on The dead economy theory
If human labor becomes 'uneconomical', what will happen? Obviously a great deal of social upheaval.

But human labor does not actually need to be as expensive as it is. How cheaply could you house, feed, and clothe people? There are parts of the world where people get by on very little income. Of course we could aspire to better living conditions than the world's poorest, but that's what the robot revolution promises: abundance.

Imagine if AI suddenly was in more demand than human labor, simply due to the price. Excellent quality output for cheaper than somebody with a degree. What would be the second order effects?

Human labor, being in less demand, would have to lower its price to compete. This is the death of the middle (and lower) class future we fear. But ironically the price of goods and services would lower as everything, even complex engineering, medicine, construction becomes affordable. With the right policy, human labor becomes cheap again. Maybe even competitive to machine labor in some niches. Improvements in machine labor could have a compounding effect on how affordable it can be for humans to survive.

So where's the gap here? Well, most wager earner's income worldwide goes towards housing. Food and water and medicine can be bottlenecked causing price gouging. Monopolies and lack of competition in the market can raise the prices of things until everybody is spending all of their disposable income on necessities. I think the price of human labor is currently very high (in the developed world) due rentier capitalism.

The transition will upend much of our economic investments and probably involve a great deal of human suffering until nations figure out the right mix of solutions.

siriusastrebe··on The Eternal Sloptember
I don't think LLMs inherently do anything perfectly. They can make sure it compiles and passes tests and they can be trained to do an enormous array of tasks, but the code it generates isn't perfect, it's selecting one of many possible outputs based off of some numbers it came up with after a few matrix multiplications and ReLU activations.

Those matrix multiplications aren't a divine perfect thing. They suffer from floating point precision issues and training data issues and there's still debate if adversarial examples are just an unsolveable property of our linear-algebra based neural network architecture.

Can they do things way faster than a human? No doubt. Can they do very complex tasks? Yes. Do they do things with perfection? Not by our human definition of perfect.

siriusastrebe··on Software engineering may no longer be a lifetime career
The globalized economy has demonstrated that a single country and supply the majority of the world's manufacturing needs, at least for a while.

Taiwan creates most of the worlds semiconductors. China makes the majority of everything else. Silicon Valley created a majority of the tech market's value.

But there's a cap where the world has enough stuff at least in the short term, and growth slows.

Humans only need a certain amount to survive. With populations leveling out, industry will shift from servicing human needs, to the needs of corporations and other industries. Consumers will become a minority in the future economy.

What will corporations value in the future, that they're willing to spend on recurring human capital expenses? I think the answer will always be: the tasks that will help companies grow.

siriusastrebe··on How can I keep from singing?
Church is how most people learn to sing in a group setting
siriusastrebe··on Your codebase doesn't care how it got written
Next you'll be telling me there's punch card programmers still. For love of the punch card craft.
siriusastrebe··on Ask HN: How do you handle marketing as a solo technical founder?
This product looks fantastic!

I got one question that I can't find the answer to on the website.

What sql variants does it support? Postgres? MariaDB?

siriusastrebe··on Slop is not necessarily the future
Once the good-enough bridge deteriorates and we have to spend more money maintaining or replacing it

Don't we end up just spending the same? Just now we're left with a crappy bridge.

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