If you're interested enough to watch a whole talk about this (you can jump to around 26 minutes): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k2AdebIbx5Y
1,925 karma · joined June 15, 2021
If you're interested enough to watch a whole talk about this (you can jump to around 26 minutes): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k2AdebIbx5Y
See this diagram on wikipedia for LSD binding affinities (lower means more affinity): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lysergic_acid_diethylamide#/me...
At the end of the day, yeah, it seems like it might cause people to switch. I'm also honestly wondering, how long until a real competitor to YouTube surfaces? I realize that this is hard to build (though we do have multiple streaming platforms in existence), but Google has been playing this slowly boiling frog experiment with ads on YouTube. Now you have multiple ads per video, coupled with ads baked within the videos themselves, and sponsored content. If you don't pay for YT premium, it's kind of unusable.
The worse the product gets, the more of an opening is created for the competition. Seems like a matter of when rather than a matter of if? What if Amazon or Apple created a YT alternative that was ad-free, maybe with some paid content to sponsor creators (pay $2 a month to get bonus content from this channel). They could afford to sink money into it and it could be very disruptive, but it's like they don't dare. Maybe they're afraid to associate their name with a product that could fail, kind of like Google Plus.
The end game is endless generative music or video streaming customized to your preferences. Being able to describe a story, or having the AI model take a guess at what you mind find interesting/entertaining and generating a whole TV show or movie for you to watch. Or generating background music while you work and automatically adjusting to your tastes as well as adjusting if you're finding it hard to concentrate or you need to take a call.
You would think so, but some asshole tried to do this to me. We had agreed on a price ahead of time, and when he showed up, he tried to low ball me with a 50% lower offer. I refused to sell the item to him, and then he became aggressive and I had to call the cops to get him to leave.
I won't get into the details, but based on what I saw, I think this guy runs kind of a side-business acting as a middle man reselling tech gear. I think he does this routinely, probably low balls people and then tries to re-sell the same stuff on marketplace afterwards. I think tech gear attracts assholes/scammers more than anything else because it has a potentially high resale value.
So, just be careful out there. Never share your phone number with people from marketplace, and don't reveal your home address if at all possible. Try to have a friend over if you have people coming for transactions or do it in a public place.
Being attacked and labeled as a racist because you dare question these kinds of policies essentially amounts to gaslighting, and the idea that we're not allowed to express disagreement against these kinds of policies is well, censorious and oppressive.
I think there just weren't enough people looking at neural networks back then. At the time, they were still considered a niche machine learning technique, just one tool in the toolbox, and not necessarily the best one.
Also, it's one thing to say that the best of the best had access to computation, but if your university has just one supercomputer, which is shared among everyone, and you have a limited number of hours during which you can use it, that's not increasing your chances at running very thorough experiments. If anything, it's not that we didn't have the compute to do deep learning in the 90s and early 2000s, it's that more access to compute makes a broader range of experimentation a lot more accessible. That makes it a lot easier to find the right training recipe more quickly.
Back in 2009 the enthusiasm around neural nets was starting to grow, as there were some early successes with deep neural nets, but I remember some people were still trying to argue that support vector machines were just as effective for image classification. It seemed laughable to me at the time, but I think that everyone who wasn't a connectionist was starting to feel threatened and wanted to justify their chosen research specialty, which they would keep doing until they couldn't anymore.
As someone who has worked in deep learning, this isn't true. Figuring out the right recipe is extremely important. The regime in which you can effectively train a neural network with good performance is just very small. If you structure things just slightly wrong, training just won't converge.
IMO we totally could have trained something like a smaller ImageNet with a decently large dataset on a supercomputer in the late 90s. We just didn't know how. In the late 90s and early 2000s, NN researchers didn't know about (or didn't appreciate the importance of) batchnorm, or ReLUs, or which hyper-parameters to use. Convnets had been invented but hadn't yet been popularized.
In the late 90s, you might have tried training an 8-layer deep MLP on a dataset of 50K images on your Cray T3E supercomputer. But you would most likely have failed, because you weren't using convnets, your sigmoid activation function lead to a vanishing gradient, and your hyper-parameters were off. You might let this run overnight, but 12 hours later, your loss barely went down, and you were out of compute budget on a supercomputer you were sharing with other researchers. Given the right code, the right recipe, you could have made it work on that 90s supercomputer and with the compute budget you had, but the right recipe just wasn't known at the time.
We needed time to figure out and to publish about the really basic ingredients needed to train bigger neural networks successfully. Having access to more compute can help figure out what the right recipe is through trial and error, but ReLUs are a super basic innovation. They are a very simple function, and essentially a theoretical innovation. Someone needed to sit down and figure out that vanishing gradients were actually a problem we needed to think about.
As others have pointed out, there are now HVDC lines that can go over thousands of kilometers (transcontinental scale!) with reasonable losses. There's no reason to believe that we've hit the peak of HVDC technology either. The need for this technology to exist will drive further innovation.
Even if the OP's estimate is off. Even if we "only" get to 90% renewables by 2045, that's still pretty damn great compared to what we have now, isn't it? Is your cynical opinion that we should just keep going with the status quo because we can't get 100% ?
Even if we need 15% more wind and 15% more storage to than the OP's estimate reach 99%, that's not impossible either. It will create a lot of jobs. Why not just roll up our sleeves and do the best that we can? Thankfully, the world is not only made up of cynics, and a lot of people already are.
We aren't done innovating on the renewable front either. There's LOTS of research into cheaper, safer, more scaleable grid-scale batteries. The current state of the art is cobalt-free and nickel-free lithium iron phosphate, but people sodium-ion batteries look like they're going to be viable soon.
I also feel pretty confident that we'll eventually manage relatively efficient ways to store energy over the long term. If we could turn electricity into methane or ethanol with even 25% efficiency, that would allow us to store energy from the summer to use in the winter, or to power transatlantic airplanes with renewables. That seems pretty exciting to me.
I think there's problems with that metric too. Not all transistors are created equal. Depending on the switching speed that you want, how much leakage current you can tolerate, etc., I bet you can vastly change how many transistors you can fit in a given area.
So 1KWh would be the output of a pro cyclist going hard for 2.5 hours, or a decently fit person biking for maybe 8 hours.
That's super interesting. It's not just black men in suits either. It's older black men, with the American flag in the background who look like they might be speaking. Clearly the model has a pretty in-depth knowledge of the context surrounding Barack Obama.
I would say the image generation model is also doing a pretty great job at stitching those concepts together in a way that's coherent. It's not a random jumble. It's kind of what you would expect if you asked a human artist to draw a black American president.
Honestly, it seems pretty dangerous. Seemingly correct code generated by a neural network that we think probably understands your code but may not. Easy to just autocomplete everything, accept the code as valid because it compiles, and discover problems at run-time.
In that case, it's obvious why the Unity CEO would say this. He has a financial incentive to get game developers to try and milk gamers for profit (because Unity gets a cut).
I think that this could ultimately push gamers and developers to use other engines/platforms. If you try to milk gamers for profit, it will eventually lead to unplayable games where the only way to compete online is to buy a ton of virtual power-ups and accessories.
Range can be an issue for some people when going on long trips (> 300 miles), but the technology will keep improving. I'm sure we'll see EVs with 10 to 15 minute charge times before the end of the decade. It would be a huge competitive advantage to have ultrafast charging, so it's an obvious thing to optimize for.
It sucks that the prices are high because it keeps some people out for the moment, but production is expanding as fast as it can. Capitalism makes it so the people with the deepest pockets will get EVs first, but that's still many less gas-powered cars off the roads, and we're still going to transition to EVs.
You could argue that electric vehicles are the most conservative solution because we already have a national power grid, and there's a fairly clear path towards producing green electricity.
There's also just more to do in the modern world. There's things like raves as you pointed out, video games, the online world. There's also a million new hobbies which are now much more accessible thanks to the internet and online stores, and much more media content. Compare today's access to entertainment to the pre-television era...
And finally, to top it all off, we have technologies like instant messaging. Instant messaging makes it possible to group text your pals after work and decide to meet anywhere you like. Before that, coordinating with a large group of people was a lot more complex and took some planning ahead, so maybe it was just easier to default to always meeting to the pub after work.