This is an update to the "AI 2027" forecast published in April (ai-2027.com)
292 karma · joined December 22, 2019
PS: I am not the author of the Small Talk Simulator.
For more than a year, Microsoft’s engineers and researchers have worked to create personalized AI tools for composing emails and documents by applying OpenAI’s machine-learning models to customers’ private data, said another person with direct knowledge of the plan
https://www.theinformation.com/articles/ghost-writer-microso...
(I have submitted also the original link in a separate thread, but was not able to add comments for some reason; @dang you might want to merge them.)
The subvariant spreading in China is Omicron BF.7 with basic reproduction number of R0>=10. That means that herd immunity will be reached at 1-1/10 = 90% of population or higher, so by the end of 2023 the death toll may indeed exceed 1 million, depending on the exact IFR which is still uncertain.
Thank you for moving my comment back :)
90% or more of the population of China will become infected with SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variants during the first quarter. Assuming infection fatality rate of around 0.1%, between 1 and 1.5 million people may die, however the Chinese government will report numbers that are lower by at least an order of magnitude. The supply chain will be impacted, and it is possible that new variants may emerge and spread to the rest of the world.
The Russo-Ukrainian war will continue. A second major offensive against Ukraine is likely. Mobilisation (both military and industrial) will continue, Ukrainian infrastructure and economy will be further damaged. There will be no negotiations. Russian regime won't collapse, Russia will not split, NATO will not become involved in fighting on Ukrainian soil. The risk of a full-scale nuclear war is very low, the use of tactical nuclear weapons is more probable, but still unlikely.
China will not launch an attack on Taiwan in 2023.
There will be many new startups based on the OpenAI API, and this market will become extremely crowded. OpenAI will continue updating their GPT model and release version 4, which will significantly improve the quality and reliability of text output and will be multimodal. There will be at least one major, publicly available, competing LLM, likely from Meta.
Twitter will add the ability to make payments on their platform and will work on developing e-commerce capabilities. Meta will follow suit, most likely on Whatsapp.
Kotlin: JetBrains is the main backer and later got embraced by Google/Android
Hack (closely related to PHP): Meta/Facebook (but not used much anywhere else)
PHP: WordPress (one of the main reasons why is PHP so popular although not a major PHP backer as far as I know)
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/s...
- Lifestyle diseases (anxiety, obesity…)
- Disappearance of anonymity and privacy
- Loliness epidemics
- Climate change
- US-China decoupling
And many others. Also see:
bbc.com/future/article/20170331-50-grand-challenges-for-the-21st-century