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thucydides

564 karma · joined September 12, 2010

lawyer and dev

x.com/drmikexo2

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thucydides··on Fnox, a secret manager that pairs well with mise
the configs, commands, and docs for this project are all different from those of your project?

maybe you feel upset that someone has created a project similar to yours, but your accusation seems meritless.

what am i missing, if anything?

thucydides··on Fairness is what the powerful 'can get away with' study shows
n=256 undergraduates playing “The Ultimatum Game.”

The headline (“fairness is what the powerful can get away with”) is a tad lofty given the methodology of the study.

thucydides··on Third places and neighborhood enterpenuership: Evidence from Starbucks cafes
Yes, I had the same experience. OP should refresh the design
thucydides··on Has the decline of knowledge work begun?
What do you mean when you say the economic pie continues to shrink?

Since 1960 American GDP has more than tripled in real terms (constant dollars): https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NYGDPPCAPKDUSA

thucydides··on Our ping pong startup hit a $50M valuation in 5 years by tapping into automation
https://archive.is/8O3Us
thucydides··on How a scientist is pushing to supersize research into ultra-processed foods
Guatemala (arbitrary choice) spent 35% of their income on food in 2016, but 66% were overweight or obese.

I don't know what's causing obesity, but it doesn't seem to be income, given everyone worldwide exploded into fatness around 1980.

And I'm not satisfied with flimsy hypotheses, such as a historically unprecedented worldwide diminution in human "willpower."

https://opendataforafrica.org/atlas/Guatemala/topics/Food-Se... https://data.worldobesity.org/country/guatemala-85/#data_tre...

thucydides··on How a scientist is pushing to supersize research into ultra-processed foods
Let's assume this graph is correct. Why did humans 100 years ago consume fewer calories? The body is a complex system with many homeostatic mechanisms. We stop eating when we're full (generally). What has adjusted that homeostatic thermostat upward? Why did obesity increase linearly for half a century and then suddenly increase exponentially starting in 1980? Why are wild animals and laboratory animals also more obese than 100 years ago?
thucydides··on How a scientist is pushing to supersize research into ultra-processed foods
"Is this really a mystery?" They address your question on the first page. Please read a few sentences of the article, or hey, even the entire article, before trying to refute it.

A brief sample, though their whole argument is more complex:

"People in the 1800s did have diets that were very different from ours. But by conventional wisdom, their diets were worse, not better. They ate more bread and almost four times more butter than we do today. They also consumed more cream, milk, and lard. Our great-grandparents (and the French) were able to maintain these weights effortlessly. They weren’t all on weird starvation diets or crazy fasting routines. And while they probably exercised more on average than we do, the minor difference in exercise isn’t enough to explain the enormous difference in weight. Many of them were farmers or laborers, of course, but plenty of people in 1900 had cushy desk jobs, and those people weren’t obese either."

thucydides··on How a scientist is pushing to supersize research into ultra-processed foods
there are some fascinating hypotheses on what's caused the worldwide exponential increase in obesity in humans (and also some wild animals). here is the best summary i've seen: https://slimemoldtimemold.com/2021/07/07/a-chemical-hunger-p...
thucydides··on Against Rereading
I don't feel like dying on the hill of Catcher in the Rye - while I think it's a good book and worth reading, I have no desire to write about it beyond the words I chose in my comment above. But I have to say that your comment here is of exactly the kind that diminishes the quality of Hacker News. Mindless name-calling: "absolute shite," "bad poorly written book," and you sneer that anyone who claims it as a favorite is "not much of a reader." No reasons, no evidence or examples, just name-calling. Ironically, your own comment, in ignoring the context and content of the whole thread, which was about the merits of reading and re-reading, seems to suggest you're "not much of a reader" yourself.

What you offer is not a "counterpoint," as you put it. It's the equivalent of: "I don't like ketchup, ketchup is bad, people who like ketchup are stupid."

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Graham%27s_Hierarchy_of...

thucydides··on Against Rereading
I read Catcher in the Rye as a teen and enjoyed Holden's angst.

Now I'm approaching middle age. Last year I was looking for books to read in a language I'm learning. I decided to re-read Catcher, and to my surprise, found it heartbreaking. I mostly remembered the plot, but it was a completely different book to me as a man than as a boy.

Everything Holden does is in the shadow of his grief over his dead brother. As a kid, that flew over my head. I couldn't have understood the hole in your heart that comes from losing someone you deeply love and admire. I didn't get the sad chain of cause and effect - there are hints at how it affects everyone in his family.

It's a beautiful and subtle book, and it rewards re-reading later in life.

thucydides··on Our Founder – Momofuku Ando
cool story but:

ENRICHED FLOUR (WHEAT FLOUR, NIACIN, REDUCED IRON, THIAMINE MONONITRATE, RIBOFLAVIN, FOLIC ACID), PALM OIL, SALT, DRIED CARROT FLAKE, CONTAINS LESS THAN 2% OF AUTOLYZED YEAST EXTRACT, CITRIC ACID, CONCENTRATED GREEN CABBAGE JUICE, DEXTROSE, DISODIUM GUANYLATE, DISODIUM INOSINATE, DISODIUM SUCCINATE, DRIED CORN, DRIED PARSLEY, EGG WHITE, GARLIC POWDER, HYDROLYZED CORN PROTEIN, HYDROLYZED SOY PROTEIN, LACTOSE, MALTODEXTRIN, NATURAL AND ARTIFICIAL FLAVOR, ONION POWDER, POTASSIUM CARBONATE, POTASSIUM CHLORIDE, POWDERED CHICKEN, RENDERED CHICKEN FAT, SILICON DIOXIDE, SODIUM ALGINATE, SODIUM CARBONATE, SODIUM TRIPOLYPHOSPHATE, SOYBEAN, SPICE AND COLOR, SUGAR, TBHQ (PRESERVATIVE), WHEAT.

yum!

thucydides··on 'The Architect of Berkshire Hathaway:' Warren Buffett Honors Charlie Munger
Buffett's letter, released today, February 24, 2024: https://berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2023ltr.pdf
thucydides··on 'The Architect of Berkshire Hathaway:' Warren Buffett Honors Charlie Munger
https://archive.is/Bta7m
thucydides··on The downside of AI language translation
The relatively simple grammar is a huge advantage. The major complaint I’ve heard from learners is about the spelling. It would be nice to reform the orthography, like the Academia Real in Spain did
thucydides··on $8B Sam Bankman-Fried criminal trial starts today
Over 100 years is entirely possible in this case. Under the Federal Sentencing Guidelines and precedent in the 2nd Circuit, the recommended total sentence will be stacked consecutively because SBF's "offense level" counsels life in prison. Here's the calculation.

A. Max sentence:

Wire fraud on customers (20 years max) + conspiracy to commit same (20) + wire fraud on Alameda lenders (20) + conspiracy for same (20) + conspiracy securities fraud on FTX investors (20) + conspiracy commodities fraud (25) + conspiracy money laundering (20).

145 years total possible

B. Determine SBF's offense level under the Federal Sentencing Guidelines, §2B1.1 (fraud): See https://www.ussc.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/guidelines-manu... and Ctrl+F for "2B1.1" to ride along:

Base offense level (7 levels) + Greater than $550,000,000 loss (30 levels) + Resulted in substantial financial hardship to 25 or more victims (6 levels) + Offense otherwise involved sophisticated means (2 levels) + Defendant derived more than $1mm in gross receipts from one or more financial institutions (2 levels, maximum, due to a cap from earlier calculation) + Violation of securities / commodities law and defendant was "associated with a broker or dealer" or officer/director of a "futures commission merchant" (4 levels)

51 levels

C. Determine the Guideline sentencing range. See https://www.ussc.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/guidelines-manu...

x axis: no criminal history. y axis, we calculated 51 levels.

The Guidelines therefore counsel life in prison.

D. Calculate sentence

The maximum sentence for each count is between 20-25 years. Under the Federal Sentencing Guidelines § 5G1.2(d) and Second Circuit precedent, sentences will be stacked consecutively "to produce a combined sentence equal to the total punishment." United States v. Evans, 352 F.3d 65 (2d Cir. 2003). In our scenario, that would be 145 years. This is the same legal reasoning used in stacking Bernie Madoff's sentences in the same federal district court, by the way.

E. Judge chooses sentence. He can depart downward from the Guidelines

Appeals courts are deferential to trial court choices in sentencing, so Judge Kaplan will have substantial latitude in choosing a sentence. That said, a judge may not be too favorably disposed to a defendant who stole billions of dollars from over 1 million customers, most of whom were ordinary people; who used Tom Brady, Bill Clinton, Tony Blair, Shaq, and Larry David as unwitting pawns; who advertised his scam in the Super Bowl and splashed its name on an arena; who used customer money to buy lavish real estate in the Bahamas, purchase favor from politicians, and make reckless leveraged bets

thucydides··on Espresso coffee mitigates the aggregation of Alzheimer′s associated tau protein
But see https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30322179/, a large meta-analysis that found no association between coffee drinking and Alzheimer's disease:

We performed a dose-response meta-analysis to summarize the prospective data on coffee consumption and associated risk of dementia and Alzheimer's disease. These studies included 7486 dementia cases diagnosed among 328,885 individuals during an average follow-up of 4.9⁻25 years. Meta-analysis of all eight studies indicated no statistically significant association between coffee consumption and the risk of dementia and no deviations from a linear trend (p = 0.08). The relative risk of dementia per 1 cup/day increment of coffee consumption was 1.01 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.98⁻1.05; p = 0.37). Meta-analysis of five studies that focused on Alzheimer's disease revealed no association between coffee consumption and Alzheimer's disease and no deviations from a linear trend (p = 0.79). The relative risk of Alzheimer's disease per 1 cup/day increment of coffee consumption was 1.01 (95% confidence interval 0.95⁻1.07; p = 0.80). These results do not support an association between coffee consumption and an increased risk of overall dementia or Alzheimer's disease specifically, but further research on the association of coffee consumption with dementia risk is needed.

thucydides··on Successful room temperature ambient-pressure magnetic levitation of LK-99
> In the US if you fake data you can become president of Stanford (for a while).

One wonders: is the unearned time as an elite university president worth being humiliated by an 18 year old on the student newspaper and being forced to resign in disgrace?

For me that's an easy no, but others may have different preferences.

thucydides··on Once hailed for decriminalizing drugs, Portugal is now having doubts
Never forget: this only happens because people tolerate it. If people didn’t want it to happen, it would stop.
thucydides··on Once hailed for decriminalizing drugs, Portugal is now having doubts
for whatever reason, he replied "fuck you too" and followed me up the stairs. what do you think was his emotional state?
thucydides··on Once hailed for decriminalizing drugs, Portugal is now having doubts
n=1: during my visit to lisbon in 2021, i was accosted twice by burly guys near my hotel[1] who aggressively asked if i wanted to buy weed or cocaine. the first time, the guy was so angry at my refusal ("no thanks, man") that he followed me up a public staircase to continue his pitch. he backed off when i returned his verbal aggression.

so maybe the portuguese policy could use some tweaking.

[1] https://goo.gl/maps/y3N88pENiH8rVXTM6

thucydides··on The End of the English Major
https://archive.is/m3y8B to break out of the paywall
thucydides··on Windows 11 runs on fewer than 1 in 6 PCs
What's wrong with Windows 11?
thucydides··on The Nature of the Firm (1937)
Great idea! It never occurred to me to use Coase's perspective to look at working from home. Thinking about it in this way makes it much easier to reason about. Thanks.
thucydides··on The hyped and distorted claims of psychedelic marketing
I'm curious what kind of synchronicities you are referring to
thucydides··on Find books set in your hometown
But the tool asks you to name a city and shows you books set in that city. None of Faulkner's books were set in his hometown.
thucydides··on Pupils Reveal ‘Aphantasia’ – The Absence of Visual Imagination
I have aphantasia. In ordinary waking life, I can't voluntarily summon images to mind. It's darkness.

But I have powerful visuals in dreams and on psychedelics. On LSD I once spent 15 minutes flying through a Henry Rousseau jungle on a toucan's back.

I can sometimes voluntarily summon images immediately before falling asleep.

Great question, by the way. I wonder if others have similar experiences.

thucydides··on Listerine Mouthwash Royalties
To put the wisdom of buying the royalty stream aside for a moment, why would a manufacturer abandon an iconic and profitable brand like Listerine after more than a century just to avoid paying royalties they've been paying during that entire time?
thucydides··on The New Old Way of Learning Languages (2008)
my 2 favorites:

https://forum.language-learners.org has excellent polyglots

https://www.reddit.com/r/languagelearning is good, though it has more beginners. however, it has a dramatically better UI

I often use Google's "site:" feature to search them

I eventually discovered that, while everyone has their idiosyncrasies, the best learners share 80% of their methods and mindsets in common. I also noticed things that cause failure by paying attention to what struggling students were saying and what the strongest students were politely chastising them for

thucydides··on The New Old Way of Learning Languages (2008)
This is correct. Many highly efficient language learners, like polyglots who learn languages as a hobby, know about this forgotten wisdom.

Along those lines, there's a small French 100+ year old language learning company called Assimil [1]. They're universally beloved by polyglots [2] [3]. They make courses out of clever dialogues with your First Language on one side and your Target Language on the other. The courses come with audio for your Target Language. They're cheap, around $50-$100, and packed with enough information to bring a total novice to respectable intermediate status.

I used their English-Spanish course to learn Spanish extremely quickly. After a few months of study, I was able to watch native Spanish TV programs with Spanish subtitles and understand 80-90% of them. I would emphatically recommend their method to anyone. I am not affiliated in any way with the company.

There's also the Listening-Reading method, which many polyglots swear by, once you've gotten your bearings in your Target Language. It's a rigorous but fun method of learning your Target Language by enjoying audiobooks of your choice.

Incidentally, it is wise, if you're serious about learning a language quickly, to seek polyglot forums and to use their accumulated knowledge to smooth the path ahead of you.

[1] https://www.assimil.com [2] https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=assimil [3] https://www.google.com/search?q=site%3Alanguage-learners.org...

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