HNHacker News
TopNewBestAskShowJobs

togilvie

40 karma · joined July 18, 2007

Crypto, AI, data. Working on Hokusai (hokus.ai). Founder of Staked - sold to Kraken. Previously Think Gaming (YC S14), AdBuyer.com (sold to Mediaocean).
submissionscomments
togilvie··on Pi Is the Last Harness
My guess is we see a cambrian explosion in harnesses. Pi may well be the substrate for lots of them. But as coding agents get better, everyone can have a version that fits their needs like a glove.
togilvie··on HarnessTax: How Much Does the Harness Matter for Coding Agents?
Starting point is the right framing. Feels like every harness will need tools to identify the best model for the task, best tools, etc. Ultimately, the only metric that matters is cost-per-successful-task, and it's good we're starting to measure these things. But need a lot more discipline on it.
togilvie··on We will be retiring Alexa.com
It's an ad tracker. It's loading in ads that people see, but isn't the source website generating the traffic.
togilvie··on Ethereum Services Are Centralized
This is a really bad take, with a limited understanding of how Ethereum nodes and smart contracts operate. I clicked hoping for more...
togilvie··on Tether minted most USDT to just 2 firms – Alameda and Cumberland
If you are a market maker / arbitrageur working across multiple exchanges, US dollars can take days to settle and wire/withdrawal capacity is limited. USDT offers instant transfers, so you can rebalance across locations with ease. That's why it's being heavily used by the largest market makers in crypto.
togilvie··on Ask HN: Did anyone's life ever gotten more comfortable after accepting funding?
I think you've answered your own question. Taking outside money will make life busier, increase pressure, and create investor expectations that may be different from your own.

Bringing in an investor that would be willing to replace you with a new management team is a Bad Idea(tm). It's also a bad idea to try to mislead your investors and replace yourselves.

Outside money can be great if you want to build a really big business and need the capital to win the market. But there are tons of businesses that are better off using revenue as funding.

One of the drawbacks of the tech media is how few people talk publicly about the businesses where the founders would have been much better off if they'd only avoided funding.

togilvie··on Randomized Control Trial of Pre-K on Children’s Skills Through 3rd Grade [pdf]
It sounds strange, but there are lots of potential explanations:

1) The pre-k program is "teaching to the test", focusing on higher scores but not the core skills that matter by third grade.

2) Parents who opt to send their children to this pre-k program are less engaged than those who keep their children at home.

3) The k-3 curriculum doesn't capitalize on the skills gained in pre-k.

It's interesting because it's such a non-intuitive result. Could be bad data, but worth checking out....

togilvie··on League of Legends Chat Service Architecture
All this fancy architecture doesn't change the fact that....I CALLED TOP FIRST!
togilvie··on 11:57 – A short virtual reality horror film made for Oculus Rift
This was cool - very scary!

One suggestion: On my first view, I ended up looking "backwards" for ~75% of the movie. I might have hit something at the beginning, but my forward-facing orientation couldn't see any of the action and there weren't any visual cues to tell me that if I turned around there were things happening until late in the movie. May be one of those weird things that VR needs to handle differently.

Excited to see more!

PS - I have a mac and DK2 but it's brand new, so could have been user error.

togilvie··on Winning at Candy Crush
Cool - will check out the series.

You could be right, but I think the seed is a lot more interesting. If you simply wanted to generate the level, you could use a random number generator on the device and wouldn't care about logging it.

As you showed by varying colors, the candy distribution determines how likely the player is to win, whether they fall just short of clearing the level, etc. This will have a significant impact on whether they pay to continue, buy boosts, etc.

togilvie··on Winning at Candy Crush
Awesome breakdown. I wrote a blog post in late September - based on some industry rumors - that speculated on whether Candy Crush was "cheating" by varying the random seed to generate monetization or retention events:

http://blog.thinkgaming.com/is-candy-crush-cheating-will-it-...

Based on the "seed" going back and forth at the start/end of games, I'd have to assume that they are doing something with it. Anyway to see if that's happening?

togilvie··on The Equity Equation
This is a nice analysis and good thinking, though it's worth noting that liquidation preference makes the VC equation less favorable. I'm not sure how Y Combinator works, but preference plays a shockingly large role when you run these types of calculations against your hypothetical VC deal.