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walkhour

513 karma · joined June 5, 2021

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walkhour··on Midjourney CEO Silencing Satire About Xi Jinping
> ridiculing politicians in China is taboo

You mean the Chinese politicians that are in power right? Chinese propaganda ridicules constantly politicians from other countries.

Obviously this is just a well calculated move. It's acceptable to mock certain kind of people/groups. That's all there is to it. We don't need to go into Chinese psychology.

walkhour··on The Data Delusion
Sure, that's quite a leap though, that higher car insurances for poor people are a cause of poverty. Surely they contribute something, but how much? Is it 0.001%? Is it whatever they contribute to big enough to not get lost in noise?

You would need a prove for the statement that higher car insurances are themselves a cause of poverty. Maybe higher car insurances make poor people less likely to get a car, and they end up richer because they don't waste time in useless holidays that would've made them poorer.

I'm not claiming this is what happens, just that your logic even if it makes sense in some abstract sense, may be separated from reality.

walkhour··on The Data Delusion
Market madness is one the best if not the best example of self fulfilling prophecy there is. But there are many use cases of data that don't result in anything like that, e.g. the example at the end of the article: car insurances.
walkhour··on New York Times says it won't pay for Twitter verified check mark
Twitter must already know engagement is higher with the check mark, and thus worth the money for many orgs.

I'm surprised the NYTimes is not paying and it's not clear to me whether it's because they think it's not worth the money or because of pride.

walkhour··on Screen time and the young brain – a contemporary moral panic? [pdf]
> I knew so many people who attempted suicide

Successful suicides are up, not actually only suicide attempts. Changes in attitudes toward mental health don't result in changes in how bodies are counted.

walkhour··on ‘Preparing to die has a lot to do with having had a good life’
Yes [0][1].

[0] https://www.fox4news.com/news/teacher-arrested-sexual-abuse-...

[1] https://www.cbsnews.com/colorado/news/summit-middle-school-p...

walkhour··on ‘Preparing to die has a lot to do with having had a good life’
And nevertheless the percentage of priests abusing children is lower than the percentage of school teachers doing the same. Make sure to bring that up every time you talk about the public school system.
walkhour··on Eliezer Yudkowsky: Dangers of AI and the End of Human Civilization – Lex Fridman
I've never seen anyone being so disagreeable on this podcast instead of just acting like if the love spreading shenanigans from Lex is something that no one should raise an eyebrow to.
walkhour··on British government mocked for advertising head of cyber role with £57K salary
Looks like a position with a lot of influence and status. Most of the salary is payed in gravitas and not pounds. I'm sure many people will be happy to take the deal.
walkhour··on Pause Giant AI Experiments: An Open Letter
Breaking: the runners lagging behind in the AI race demand openAI to stop right on its tracks; this is very unsafe; it will be much safer once we catch up and openAI is on the rear view mirror.
walkhour··on Rotten meat may have been a staple of Stone Age diets
> There are no contemporary examples of humans hunting that way.

There are some examples [0], although admittedly they are isolated cases.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Persistence_hunting

walkhour··on EU Commission doesn't understand what's written in its own chat control bill
Maybe, but Zuckerberg smirks, also the guy behind him, and also the blond lady next to him.

It seems more likely to me that the Senator was out of his depth.

walkhour··on EU Commission doesn't understand what's written in its own chat control bill
Reminds me of the senator that asked Zuckerberg how do they make money [0], and Zuckerberg simply said they run ads. What a way to use your questioning time, with something that was a google search away.

[0] https://youtu.be/n2H8wx1aBiQ

walkhour··on Alibaba to split into six separate groups
Supporting these kind of policies many times is not a result of thinking about any kind of consequences, even first order consequences.

They just want to get back at something they don't like. Unfortunately this is the basis of too many policies, regardless of whether they are a net positive or not.

walkhour··on The TikTok ban is a betrayal of the open internet
Outright banning something very specific is much simpler than creating regulation that's going to affect a whole industry.

The argument for creating regulation is not that it would be simple but that it would be comprenhensive.

walkhour··on The TikTok ban is a betrayal of the open internet
> banning superior foreign products and services mean that people have to use inferior local substitutes.

TikTok is only superior in poisoning the minds of people using it here in US. That's why the Chinese version is different. I think zero is lost if people use the inferior local ones in this case.

> This logic is "they make themselves worse off, so we should match them". That is lose-lose scenario logic.

Sure, the optimal solution for the prisoner's dilemma is that both cooperate. But once one doesn't cooperate, the optimal solution is not to cooperate. US looks like a dummy waving the flag of morality while China laughs in its face.

walkhour··on The TikTok ban is a betrayal of the open internet
> put up proper user protecting rules

That is a solution, but there's nothing simple about it. Obviously there's an even much simpler solution than coming up with what would be a very very complex set of regulations and laws, that would have impact across all the industry, and that btw tech giants would love. The really simple solution could be done tomorrow, without the need of figuring out what "proper" is in this case.

Not that what you're saying shouldn't happen, but it's a different battle that needn't be intertwined with this one.

walkhour··on Sam Altman 'A Little Bit Scared' of ChatGPT, Will Eliminate 'Many' Jobs
Whether it will be true or not, good propaganda attempt, Sam.
walkhour··on Where did FTX customer money go? Firm says Bankman-Fried took $2.2B
Your understanding of the judicial system is off. All prediction markets estimate he'll be away decades. If you're confident in your assessment, you can make a lot of money.
walkhour··on Instead of paying adults more, states let companies hire kids for labor shortage
To the people concerned about kids depressing the wages of adults, are you also concerned about low wage immigration?

Is immigration also capitalism showing its evil hand and do you oppose it because it negatively affects workers? (btw this was Bernie Sanders position until two minutes ago when his views "evolved" and aligned with the rest of the party)

walkhour··on Instead of paying adults more, states let companies hire kids for labor shortage
If the value of their production exceeds the living wage, nothing. If it doesn't, there's nothing the company can do but pay less than the living wage or fire the employee.
walkhour··on Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says
Naming something by its origin it's not racist. The tone you're talking about is a completely subjective statement, and it has no place in a serious discussion.

Using that name should've never been controversial and making it controversial was creating drama where there was none. The fact that people are still hurt about Trump saying that years ago shows how unprepared we are to have a discussion about anything.

walkhour··on Females more likely than males to be elected in US scientific societies
> Ending inequality requires asymmetrical behavior.

Sure there's a small delta between what you say and what others claim you say. Unless they verbatim repeat what you say there will always be a delta.

Don't pretend to don't understand the point they are making and address it.

walkhour··on Look at how the 1% are doing, and tell me the system isn’t rigged
> Quite simply, wealthy people have used their wealth to purchase democracy, to warp democracy in their own interests. They’ve done that through a global template that involves lowering taxes, privatising formerly public attempts to deal with common problems, liquidating the spending that went into things like social services, and then putting that money into their own pockets.”

When did this happen? Taxes are near at the highest they've ever been. Government budget as a % of GDP is at its max. Never so much money has been spent on social services.

Quite simply, this is a conspiracy theory, and rich people don't have that much influence on public policy. This is not the Gilded Age. Journalists have more influence in public policy than the Jeff Bezos of the world, and Jeff Bezos owns a newspaper.

walkhour··on Japan was the future but it's stuck in the past
Incidentally what Afghanistan has done, with the claim that it will raise the birth rate. Women are banned from universities.
walkhour··on #1921 – Peter Zeihan
> Putin would never throw an atomic bomb to the US because the US always knows where Putin is and we would just bomb him back and terminate him.

What if he just goes underground? Russia doesn't have a single nuclear bunker? What if he's terminally ill and doesn't care? Do we know USA would retaliate with another nuke? Are you confident of that, or maybe USA would hold off?

So many uncertainties and in contrast you have a man speaking without a shadow of a doubt.

walkhour··on #1921 – Peter Zeihan
A book is probably a much better format than a podcast. It looks like he just makes assertions without justifying anything.

One of the most important (or the only) metric in his field should be how well you can predict things, and he has a poor track record [0]. He's nowhere close to the top 1% forecasters, so overall I think there are many many sources that understand geopolitics better than him.

[0] https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2023/01/here-is-what-peter-zei...

walkhour··on #1921 – Peter Zeihan
I'm a few minutes into the podcast and Zeihan has already said stuff like:

* Putin would never throw an atomic bomb to the US because the US always knows where Putin is and we would just bomb him back and terminate him.

* Even if "the Chinese" took Taiwan they wouldn't be able to take advantage of the semiconductor industry. They can't operate their own.

* Russia needs to integrate a number of countries that would double its size to feel safe. If they don't achieve this they have a huge border and not enough troops to protect it.

* "We" listen to everything "the Russian" and "the Chinese" say, the Chinese room is silent. Therefore Xi Jinping is completely isolated. This is the biggest danger in a war with Taiwan.

* If Ukraine falls, Poland is next, NATO will get involved, Russia will get destroyed, thus Russia will probably use nukes.

* I'm almost quoting here: "the plan for the Chinese in the next 10 years is to beat the nationalist drum so that when the food and the energy run out everybody bands together only because they are Han Chinese"

The certainty of his statements could be translated into billons, is this guy a billionaire?

walkhour··on The creator economy: the top 1% and everyone else
Thanks for the updates, can you add another update with the author's response? Whether you agree with the argument or not it's relevant they have shown face and have justified their actions.
walkhour··on Should we care about people who need never exist?
[0]:

> Modulo a few technical assumptions - any system of population ethics has to embrace either the Repugnant Conclusion, the Anti-Egalitarian Conclusion or the Sadistic conclusion.

Something to keep in mind when thinking about population ethics.

If you think this is taking the theory to the extreme with no contact in the real world you may want to think why China instituted the one child policy.

[0] https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZGSd5K5Jzn6wrKckC/embracing-...

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