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wallacoloo

1,478 karma · joined January 13, 2016

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wallacoloo··on The Importance of Price Signals
> The Cardboard Box Reform - Nixon's Ghost Bill & A Crucial Flaw in Democracy

video title, for those without a magic youtube url preview device.

wallacoloo··on The Importance of Price Signals
so… what are these house rules?
wallacoloo··on The Sucker Complex
> Labor is the only kind of value and any "worth" (eg money) has to be translatable to that. Crypto and gold is not.

crypto and gold can be exchanged for labor products in much the same way that other wealth can be (a house, stocks, bonds) — by first being exchanged for money. what do you mean when you say these things aren’t “translatable” into labor?

wallacoloo··on The Sucker Complex
> I don’t think you’re wrong, but is society better off when wrong-doing is exposed and not condemned or when it is hidden but broadly condemned?

the third option: broadly exposed, and also condemned. there’s no reason that increased exposure has to decrease condemnation. in many cases, it transforms condemnation into a more insightful view: as society has had increasingly honest views into addiction, we understand it better and are able to replace the “addicts are bad people” myth with a proper understanding of behavior and human psychology. every person knows that they’re taking a risk when using oxycontin for an extended period of time and can take the necessary precautions as a result. this wasn’t true when we covered the whole complex truth with a blanket. the blanket only ever slowed us down in our effort to understand and address the real problems.

wallacoloo··on The Sucker Complex
> If we had done half the stuff people had suggested we do because “everyone does it” we would have had a much worse time in that audit.

you have to mentally remove this paragraph from your story. the scenario is that there are zero repercussions for failing the audit. you might think that it’s irrelevant to you, but the fact you bring it up shows it had at least some impact on you. maybe not enough to impact your actions today, but there’s a large spectrum here where the difference between enforcement or no enforcement is significant enough to impact the behavior of a slightly different person or of your own behavior in a slightly different scenario.

wallacoloo··on Ask HN: What's the best book you read in 2021?
Elizier Yudkowsky is just a really good author. can’t speak for HPMOR, but i love his other series, The Sequences, which per my understanding communicates the same ideas via more succinct, nonfiction writing.

https://www.readthesequences.com/ or the paperbacks are on Amazon.

wallacoloo··on Subsea Cable to Connect Asia, Europe, and North America Through the Arctic
> light does not follow a straight path through fiber it bounces around.

this is only relevant for multimode fiber, right? in singlemode fiber the light must propagate parallel with the fiber. even in multimode fiber, some light is parallel, so it doesn’t necessarily limit latency — it creates dispersion.

wallacoloo··on IMF, 10 countries simulate cyber attack on global financial system
> The autocratic corrupt spying apparatus gov?

replace “autocratic” with “unelected”/unaccountable and you get the NSA.

wallacoloo··on Linux Has Grown into a Viable PC Gaming Platform and the Steam Stats Prove It
> Linux machines make up only a bit above 1% of all Steam users.

to my knowledge, this number has remained remarkably consistent over the past 5-ish years, even as Proton/Wine become more and more reliable. it seems that library compatibility isn’t that much of a determinant for which OS a typical user chooses to game on.

but if Valve’s console effort is successful, then that number would necessarily rise. and i can see a linux console replacing something like my Switch. at the end of the day, console gamers don’t really care about the underlying OS — just the hardware and the game library (and miscellaneous HTPC features, etc). if such things can be abstracted from the actual console, that gives a huge leg up to incumbents. might pave the way to some Cambrian explosion of console development differentiated only by hardware.

wallacoloo··on IMF, 10 countries simulate cyber attack on global financial system
what exactly did they simulate? from the scant details on the article, this sounds more like a training exercise than a simulation, to me.
wallacoloo··on Tell HN: AWS appears to be down again
AWS has its Outpost product for on-prem hosting. not 100% self-managed, but maybe enough to satisfy the execs and make your market a bit smaller.
wallacoloo··on The bulldozer vs. vetocracy political axis
i think it’s just bad UX. my understanding is that Citadel acts as the market maker for Robinhood. if it ever can’t provide liquidity for a trade, you need to handle that case explicitly. make it clear to the user where liquidity comes from and how much of it there is, otherwise they can’t reach for any cause besides “Robinhood (Citadel) decided to pull a switch”. order books used to serve that role: i’m not sure what the solution is in this era of HFT.
wallacoloo··on Beanstalk: A Decentralized Credit Based Stablecoin Protocol
> This is what happens when you "sow beans", the protocol burns them and in exchange you get a locked-in interest rate (in pods), and you get paid out when all the lenders in front of you (the pod line) get paid out.

ohh, i misunderstood the lockup conditions around lending. so the protocol properly does decrease circulation. still at the expense of an increased maximum supply, but with the rate at which that new supply enters circulation controlled for independently (by the "bean supply").

i don't see any mechanism to decrease the maximum supply. over the very long term, it seems that the system becomes increasingly unstable the longer that the bean demand growth is below the Weather rate. the bean demand growth ought to have some resemblance to the general rate of return, so the uncertain thing here is: will lenders lend at advantageous rates to Beanstalk after it establishes itself as a good creditor? or will lenders demand an outsized return for lending to Beanstalk, on account of their money being locked up for an indeterminant duration? i see arguments for both, but it's pretty academic: it looks like there's enough runway in the system that these "very long term" preponderances are mostly irrelevant in this stage of defi.

interesting project.

wallacoloo··on Against 3x Speed
> Though you can pick up the gist pretty fast, relationships need time to blossom.

a lot of the arguments make me think of two different approaches to a task: breadth-first v.s. depth-first. for most tasks, you almost always want a balance of the two. in general, when you're young you explore the breadth of relationships; and after a time you understand which aspects are most important to you, and you pursue the depth of a smaller set of relationships.

now there's a lot of surface-level media out there. the kind that tells you about some thing without explaining it. you might listen to a broad overview about current topics in electrical engineering. by doing so, you learn about the avenues available to you and then later you go and do a deep dive into the specific avenue you want.

> The world rewards people who develop expertise in a specific subject.

indeed (modulo that your "specific subject" could just as well be a niche blend of classical subjects). pushing the envelope requires a deep approach to learning -- the version where you listen at 1x, pause, and then draw new conclusions/connections that even the author missed. but if you're still in the earlier, discovery phase of your growth? then what you really want is the 3x speed, breadth-first overviews.

not all information is equally valuable. if, by using 3x speed, you can more quickly locate the areas of study which are highly valuable to you at the expense of failing to integrate a bunch of information that is of low value to you, that can be a fair tradeoff. understand the tradeoffs; be explicit.

wallacoloo··on Beanstalk: A Decentralized Credit Based Stablecoin Protocol
so when the price of beans is low -- i.e. when there's more bean supply than there is demand -- the protocol tries to spur demand by increasing bean-denominated yield for beans ("weather"). the downstream effect of this is to further increase supply. and so the supply/demand imbalance that led to lower-than-$1 value persists (or will occur later, as the supply grows over time).

there's a million different ways to look at a system like this, and tbh i'm sort of drowning in the metaphors ("pods", "stalk", "weather", etc). is there a more convincing argument for how the protocol deals with the bean value < $1USD scenario?

wallacoloo··on Beanstalk: A Decentralized Credit Based Stablecoin Protocol
or not, if the overlap between AWS and crypto devs/users is small.
wallacoloo··on The mother of all crashes is coming and it won’t be fun
i imagine most market holdings follow power laws. or is the stock market different in this way because of more widespread pensions/retirement accounts?

either way, a $2T crypto market (i don't know where GP got $3T from: CoinMarketCap.com lists 2.2T) is substantially smaller than a $50T stock market. Governments can and have just straight up injected that demand equivalent in value to that $2T figure into markets in the past, so if we have a crash localized to crypto, it's not as though govts have no recourse.

wallacoloo··on The mother of all crashes is coming and it won’t be fun
well, coinbase claims to have 73M verified accounts [1], so, quite a few?

and anecdotally, yeah, seeing crypto go up has similar impact on me as seeing stocks go up: i feel more comfortable making larger purchases whenever my wealth goes up, doesn’t matter if crypto v.s. equity (if volatility impacts your comfort, then you just cash out your gains and soend those).

[1]: https://www.coinbase.com/about

wallacoloo··on Melting glaciers may produce thousands of kilometers of new salmon habitat
leaving the caves was an individual- or tribal-level decision. in fact, many groups did not leave the caves, only some did. it’s a poor metaphor for climate change because we don’t have the option of exploring both paths simultaneously as a species in the same way our ancestors did with those caves.

cost/benefit analysis, i do agree with though. or maybe a “risk-adjusted” cost/benefit. the biggest disagreement i have is with people who think climate change is inherently bad, rather than believing specific outcomes/effects of climate change are bad. when you unpack climate change often the bad things are common across catastrophes caused by other disruptions, e.g. food/water insecurity is something we could see both from climate change or large-scale war. certain ways of thinking about the situation might lead a person to believe that addressing these effects is the way to make humanity more bulletproof, rather than trying to prevent the several distinct causes (CO2 emissions being one of them) that lead to the real problems. though it’s never an all-or-nothing, more like “reduce the causes to the point that you’re not reducing our ability to respond to the effects”. cost/benefit analysis, like you say.

wallacoloo··on Internet addiction and the habit of book reading
is it the generalization you take issue with (i.e. the implication that reading of any kind in enough volume can teach critical thinking)? or do you actually take issue with the voracious readers of epistemology/philosophy of science/etc who are explicitly trying to use books as an aid to become more critical thinkers?
wallacoloo··on Internet addiction and the habit of book reading
go visit an arcade. crazy enough there are still companies out there making new arcade hardware and the benefit of being out of your home, in a place dedicated to gaming, will help you concentrate.
wallacoloo··on Internet addiction and the habit of book reading
the quality of any body of work is incredibly subjective. take a look at any best-sellers list and pick a random book off it: chances are (if you're like me) that you'll think it was a waste of time after having read it. so then how do you find good content? 1) have friends with common tastes, and consult them. this becomes difficult if you're a millennial surrounded by peers who don't read. 2) find short-form blogs for which the sunk cost in deciding if you like them and want to follow them is low; expand into adjacent blogs & writers. blogs don't link to each other quite like they did in the past (e.g. webrings), so this almost always puts you back into some form of social media for the aggregation (reddit), and those aggregators quite often degrade/drift over time. 3) follow the algorithm. the only platform i've found that's semi-decent at introducing me to new, quality, creators is YouTube (or TikTok, but that's a substantially different genre).

books are cool, but if any of the above tracks with you, the barrier to entry is actually a lot more substantial than the other forms of media we're accustomed to (tv shows, video games, etc). writers shoot themselves in the foot by writing massive tomes that take 800 pages to say what could have been better communicated in 200. introductions are the epitome of authors totally losing track of what the value they provide is -- and yet new authors still include them freakishly often.

wallacoloo··on Internet addiction and the habit of book reading
adding to this: if your issue is one of focus, try a pomodoro timer. it's a great way to shut off that voice nagging you about all the other things you need to remember to do, because you can forget about all of those and know that in 25 minutes you'll have an opportunity to reconsider them. if you're really strict with your time management, another approach is to use detailed calendars, but that's a lot more work than just a simple timer.
wallacoloo··on India defuses its population bomb: fertility falls to two children per woman
> I think its mostly a financial problem, not a physical labor problem.

what does this mean? i assume in your picture, the taxes (finance) are paying for the labor. if not, what is it that we’re struggling to finance?

wallacoloo··on India defuses its population bomb: fertility falls to two children per woman
i seriously recommend anyone downvoting this to read the actual IPCC reports [1]. not denying that climate change is happening and causing harm, but the proximate effects due to climate change (i.e. extreme weather events, loss of biodiversity, decreased food/water safety) are worth understanding concretely. the biggest worries from climate change IMO are all the second-order effects, and somewhat socio-political in nature: catastrophe in one region tends to “spread” to other regions, e.g. when one country experiences famine the adjacent countries can be overloaded with migrants and now they also have not enough food, leading to a contagion of food insecurity. if the biggest problems really are socio-political (based on how unevenly climate change hits throughout the world), it hints at other options for deadening the blow to climate change that a typical reader might not be aware of. it also points to the risky idea that the most effective way of decreasing these sorts of localized-but-contagious catastrophe really is to lift every region out of poverty (giving them the same tools we have to easily relocate or react to shocks), which today usually means prioritizing energy security (even if unclean energy) and definitely not any of the “degrowth” ideas casually tossed around.

[1]: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/06/SR15...

wallacoloo··on Fixing a Tiny Corner of the Supply Chain
> I could imagine either dirt cheap labor in well laid out warehouses or some form of automated picking solution.

i'd love to see a proper dive/writeup from someone in-the-know. lacking that, here's a third, completely speculative theory:

from what i hear, these big distributors are excellent at providing quick turnaround time. suppose that in order to guarantee this for large customers -- who presumably provide the bulk of revenue and who most value this service -- DigiKey must continually over-provision its operations. and so whenever there isn't a number of outstanding rush orders, there's extra staff available, at no marginal cost to the business, to assist the little guy.

wallacoloo··on Why the demographic transition is speeding up
> On November 24th India’s government declared that the country’s fertility rate had dropped to 2.0 children per woman.

the writer (who appears to be anonymous?) shamelessly omits citing or linking to any source for this, and i can't find it. there's a WaPo article [1] claiming a similar thing, where their assertion is backed up by a broken link. when i search "India fertility rate" the most relevant thing i can find suggests this to be 2.18 as of this year [2]. this source's numbers match the St Louis Fed's numbers [3] up to the point that the fed lacks data (2019).

help me out here. the claim that fertility rates are falling faster than predicted -- and that replacement rate has already been reached -- is central to this article. so on the surface, this article seems entirely untrustworthy.

[1] https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/11/25/india-birth-...

[2] https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/IND/india/fertility-ra...

[3] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SPDYNTFRTININD

wallacoloo··on Why the demographic transition is speeding up
> Instead the general trend seems to be that single/child-free people despise any privilege or help parents may recieve in the corporate world, or by the government (coming out of their taxes).

i don't disbelieve this, but this is the first i'm hearing of it. the obvious counter-example i have at hand is Bernie Sanders and others on the left pushing for free college education (which is a benefit to all the parents out there who start college funds for their children). and didn't last year's stimmy checks/tax breaks give more benefits for parents with children than parents without children? i swear early revisions of Biden's infrastructure bill had stuff for childcare, too, though idk if that made it into the final revision.

i can believe that there's people who oppose these things, but is the trend really against providing benefits for child-raising parents, or is it just that the roll-out of these benefits is too slow for your taste?

wallacoloo··on The U.S. productivity slowdown: an economy-wide and industry-level analysis
> This is why the Reddit AntiWork subreddit is interesting right now, we are seeing a country wide revolt which could spread to neighbouring Western countries.

how big is this movement, actually? personally, i quit my job without knowing about “anti-work”, and without the goal of making any point. then i was very confused when multiple people IRL told me they respected me for it, and learned about anti-work. it happens that there’s some overlap between their complaints and my reasons for quitting… but their complaints cast such a wide net that it’s not surprising. so i’m not yet sure how much the anti-work label or the community actually affects things on the ground v.s. just showcases popular sentiment and actions that people would have taken anyway.

wallacoloo··on The U.S. productivity slowdown: an economy-wide and industry-level analysis
i think the complaint is not giving status reports, but being forced to listen to others’ seemingly irrelevant status reports.
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