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ItsMonkk

922 karma · joined January 5, 2021

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ItsMonkk··on Inheriting is becoming nearly as important as working
If the safe speed of the road is 25mph, and the design speed of the road is above 25mph, you will not have safety no matter what the speed limit is. Vision Zero strategies take these factors into account to ensure safety.
ItsMonkk··on Inheriting is becoming nearly as important as working
I understand this is a tangent but you picked a really bad example. We should be trying to remove every single speed limit that we can.

If the design speed of a road does not match the speed limit of the road, people will drive the design speed, cops will learn to sit there all hours of the day waiting for people to mess up, and get ticketed. Instead of just putting up the speed limit sign, city planners should design for the road to be safe without need for the speed limits to be in place. This can mean things like reducing the width of a lane, could mean speed bumps, to purposeful non-straight sections.

ItsMonkk··on School is Not Enough: Learning is a consequence of doing (2021)
What do people on here say, luck favors the prepared? Had he gone on to college, the odds that he was on that forum go down, and thus he would not be the one strike when the opportunity arose.

Confirmation bias is very tricky here. A quick look at top essentially single games of all times shows that a full 50% or so of them were created by drop outs, a number way outside of what we would expect. But how many dropped out and failed?

All of these guys clearly had the capability to create greatness within them their entire life, but were stuck in an environment that did not fit their talents or did not otherwise give them the support that would allow them to thrive, like Tao got.

And yet, all of the people whom were failed by the system will never be heard of, and we have no idea the numbers of these people either. I expect that there are way more of them than unsuccessful dropouts.

ItsMonkk··on School is Not Enough: Learning is a consequence of doing (2021)
It's useful here to split up these people into different categories. Terrance Tao was a prodigy and was allowed to succeed within the school system beyond what others are given access to. Zuckerberg and Gates succeeded and didn't require finishing college - not really dropping out.

Indie Gaming slant on these following examples, and I suspect that this sector is above average for this type of thing, but I suspect if I looked I could find many dropouts in other fields. On the other hand, Carmack dropped out of college, Jonathan Blow dropped out of college. Markus Persson dropped out of high school. Eric Barone never found a job despite graduating from college. All of these people are out-of-this-world fucking good, but were not at the time that they dropped out, which means according to your guide should not have gone on to create what they did.

ItsMonkk··on If A.I. Can Do Your Job, Maybe It Can Also Replace Your CEO
If locally hosted AI can do many jobs, why would a person ever consult a company and pay for their services?
ItsMonkk··on Priced out of home ownership
The Census breaks the homeless population into two groups - those whom live in shelters and those who do not. They completely ignore the later. For the former, shelters are not considered housing units.

> "Census Bureau surveys do not collect data on the population experiencing homelessness and living on the streets"

> https://www2.census.gov/library/working-papers/2024/demo/seh...

ItsMonkk··on Priced out of home ownership
Surely one of us is confused, but I am not lying. Here it is on the Census website. No where does the Homeownership rate depend on people. It depends on housing units.

> Housing Unit. A housing unit is a house, an apartment, a group of rooms, or a single room occupied or intended for occupancy as separate living quarters.

> Homeownership Rates. The proportion of households that are owners is termed the homeownership rate. It is computed by dividing the number of households that are owners by the total number of occupied households.

> https://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/definitions.pdf

When we get to the bottom of this we should edit the Wikipedia article if I am wrong.

> The name "homeownership rate" can be misleading. As defined by the US Census Bureau, it is the percentage of homes that are occupied by the owner. It is not the percentage of adults that own their own home. This latter percentage will be significantly lower than the homeownership rate. Many households that are owner-occupied contain adult relatives (often young adults, descendants of the owner) who do not own their own home. Single building multi-bedroom rental units can contain more than one adult, all of whom do not own a home.

> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homeownership_in_the_United_St...

ItsMonkk··on Priced out of home ownership
How does a person becoming homeless effect the homeownership rate? They no longer get counted.

How does someone owning (and living in) multiple properties effect the homeownership rate? They count multiple times!

How does someone renting out a bedroom effect the homeownership rate? Their tenant doesn't count! This includes adult children.

You can not use this metric in the way that you just assumed you could.

ItsMonkk··on Deep Aphantasia: a visual brain with minimal influence from priors?
It's interesting because it should be very easy to put a test in action. Are there true capability differences between people who think in different ways? Feynman[0] goes through a particular version of such a test in his Ways of Thinking series.

It should be trivial to write up a puzzle game such that, much like those color blind tests where you need to find numbers, will very quickly eliminate people who think in different ways while being a piece of cake for others. And yet I don't think I've ever encountered one.

Are there no capabilities that can not be overcome? Would that puzzle game just be terrible entertainment? Why doesn't it exist?

[0]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gbwLkuxORdY

ItsMonkk··on Land use policies make urban childcare expensive and rare
What percentage of the labor costs are being used to paying the laborers rent? How much is it in paying the laborers food? For healthcare? For education? How expensive are all of these things in San Francisco compared to other cities?

Now how correct are you?

ItsMonkk··on What Happens When a Fifteen Year Old Pumps and Dumps with a Net Profit of $800k? (2002)
The trading industry is separate from the investing industry.

The investing industry is positive sum - but you must hold for the long-run, or only make decisions if new information is discovered to be an investor. Vanguard and other passive firms are a part of the investing industry.

As the GP says, the trading industry is zero-sum.

ItsMonkk··on Oil Executives Are Getting Refreshingly Honest These Days
This is just more talking points to confuse.

The architecture that economists and climate scientists both agree will move the needle on this is a revenue neutral carbon tax. A revenue neutral carbon tax taxes carbon, and then returns 100% of that tax money back to people equally. Anyone who uses less than the average amount of carbon - which is a majority of the population - since the top users use so much, get paid in this scheme.

People might not want to pay, but they don't have to. Excessive users, the non-majority, pay. People, on average, don't pay - they get paid.

The architecture already exists, it's already law in certain countries, and anyone ignoring this fundamental reality is not being serious.

ItsMonkk··on RTO doesn't improve company value, but does make employees miserable: Study
> And when we worked from the office, it was much easier to catch them going sideways and re-direct them.

I regularly work with people on my team who need to go into an office, but it's a different office than mine. RTO does not solve this issue.

> why would any third spaces want to be setting up in a dead business district if no one goes there anymore?

SoHo, Manhattan in the 1970's matches this description. That environment is a perfect breeding ground for communities to flourish.

> so it's unlikely the office is getting sold

Sure. Some will, some won't. Still means less demand and cheaper prices. Still means some workplaces will use a shared model with other companies.

ItsMonkk··on RTO doesn't improve company value, but does make employees miserable: Study
You seem to think if your company is offering WFH that you still can't come into the office. I don't see why that has to be the case. It it work from ANYWHERE in the world, including your office, vs work ONLY in your office. Every other point you make no longer holds.

As an introvert who does understand those points you make, society should pick up the slack with third spaces. What's holding those third spaces back? Lack of cheap access to space. Once the offices are sold they will become third spaces, and we will get the best of both worlds.

ItsMonkk··on The Problem with Civil Asset Forfeiture (2016)
Looks like a perfect opportunity for a citizen's dividend. Anything that is taken is put into a pot. After a certain time all of that is given back equal to all citizens.
ItsMonkk··on Autonomous trucking is harder than autonomous rideshare
Yep.

I don't really see the point in anything long range for autonomous vehicles in the near-term. We should optimize the use-case of them driving people and goods to and from train stations. For this use-case it should be entirely fine if the max speed they can achieve is 20mph. The stopping times and force that can be achieved at those speeds should bring down the danger by quite a bit.

ItsMonkk··on Strawberry case study: What if farmers had to pay for water?
Eh, NIT and any sort of UBI are mathematically the same thing given you still have an income tax and can adjust the percentage. This just accomplishes that goal in a progressive way.
ItsMonkk··on Strawberry case study: What if farmers had to pay for water?
Yep, this is why we need a water price and dividend system.

Whenever you use water it is tracked and you pay the market price. All of that is then collected and put into a pot. It is then given back equally to everyone.

Everyone is thus incentivized to use less and those that use less than the average amount of water - a huge majority of people since the heaviest users use so much - will receive more money than they spent.

ItsMonkk··on Copyright is not a moral right, it's a monetization strategy
It's a relatively simple argument first made by Economist Paul Samuelson a century ago.

> A businessman could not build it for a profit, since he cannot claim a price from each user. This certainly is the kind of activity that governments would naturally undertake. Even if the operators were able—say, by radar reconnaissance—to claim a toll from every nearby user, that fact would not necessarily make it socially optimal for this service to be provided like a private good at a market-determined individual price. Why not? Because it costs society zero extra cost to let one extra ship use the service; hence any ships discouraged from those waters by the requirement to pay a positive price will represent a social economic loss—even if the price charged to all is no more than enough to pay the long-run expenses of the lighthouse.

> https://truthonthemarket.com/2021/06/22/the-virtues-and-pitf...

If one is to pay any amount of money more than the marginal cost, and decides not to that is an example of dead-weight loss.

I think the major issue here is that those that wish to abolish copyright and patents aren't then actively promoting another idea, as you say. Let's look at spaces where it is currently illegal to copyright or patent something, say, Maths formulas. Do we have no one working on new maths? No. We have plenty of Mathematicians. They either work for companies creating trade secrets, or they work for Universities releasing their work in journals for all to use.

So let's re-imagine a system where copyrights and patents are abolished. As Samuelson argues, as this is non-excludable and has zero marginal costs, it is a perfect fit for the government to take charge. Given that the current system produces dead-weight loss bringing down the production of the entire country, if we remove this dead-weight loss than the country will have much higher productivity. That higher productivity will drive higher taxes, and those higher taxes will allow the government to expand tenure track positions in public universities. Those tenure track positions can then go on and create new works and patents. The demand that those works create will then bring students to study and allow the works to proliferate.

Would you prefer a system where copyrights and patents were abolished but there were 100x more tenure track positions? Where 10% of the population held such a role?

ItsMonkk··on AI cannot be patent 'inventor', UK Supreme Court rules in landmark case
As someone who believes that patents and copyrights should be abolished, this is a great first step. If AI can do to innovation what it did to Chess where it made even centaur matches pointless, within a short time a significant amount of inventions will be unpatentable and public. In 10 years we can work to abolish the minority created before AI took over.
ItsMonkk··on Microsoft is eating the world
They don't own the IP. They are licensed the IP by OpenAI.
ItsMonkk··on Microsoft is eating the world
That's even worse. Breaching the contract would presumably mean they would lose access to the GPT4 IP. That would set Microsoft back months in the race. Unthinkable.
ItsMonkk··on Microsoft is eating the world
Presumably they still have billions of dollars of pledged compute remaining from Microsoft, opening up and letting open source contributors move the project forward is the best path forward. And doing this is the first step on that path.
ItsMonkk··on 280M e-bikes and mopeds are cutting demand for oil far more than electric cars
Completely agree.

This form of transportation needs it's own infrastructure. We need wider dedicated paths for this much higher efficient form of transportation that can carry many more people than car lanes can. Like in the Netherlands the Unites States needs to build an entirely separate bike path network so that these bikes can stop being ping-ponged between getting killed on the roads and slightly annoying pedestrians.

Every single person that converts from driving a car to riding an e-bike is one less person creating traffic. If there's anything cars hate more than pedestrians, hate more than bikes, it's other drivers. This will be a huge win for drivers.

ItsMonkk··on Young people would sacrifice other perks for a 4-day workweek
It would not. You have been misled.

Here's backup from wikipedia, or are they also not making sense?

> The name "homeownership rate" can be misleading. As defined by the US Census Bureau, it is the percentage of homes that are occupied by the owner. It is not the percentage of adults that own their own home. This latter percentage will be significantly lower than the homeownership rate. Many households that are owner-occupied contain adult relatives (often young adults, descendants of the owner) who do not own their own home. Single building multi-bedroom rental units can contain more than one adult, all of whom do not own a home.

> the home ownership rate is created through the Housing Vacancy Survey by the U.S. Census Bureau. It is created by dividing the owner occupied units by the total number of occupied units.

> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homeownership_in_the_United_St...

ItsMonkk··on Young people would sacrifice other perks for a 4-day workweek
The homeownership rate is the percentage of HOMES that are lived in by their owners, not the count of PEOPLE that own their own homes. Given a shortage of homes, the homeownership rate will not show you that there is a crisis.

For example, if you homeless you do not count. If you live with your parents even though you would prefer to rent if you could afford it, that is a home-owned household. If the owner lives in their home and they rent out a room, that's a home. If you used to rent with 4 people and now live with 8, that's a single rental. If you own and live in multiple homes, you count multiple times.

Without more analysis, you can not use this rate to come to any conclusions.

ItsMonkk··on Detroit wants to be the first big American city to tax land value
And what is your take on when Minneapolis voted to allow multi-family units[0] and rents dropped[1] relative to other cities? Shouldn't those new units have brought higher land values, and with it higher rents?

[0]: https://archive.ph/7oCO6

[1]: https://archive.ph/lO8xY

ItsMonkk··on Detroit wants to be the first big American city to tax land value
Under the existing system you are incentivized for your own land to be zoned as highly as possible while your neighbors land is restricted as possible to keep supply low. Since everyone votes against you and you vote against everyone, zoning is low just about everywhere.

Under a land value tax this flips, and the majority vote would go to up-zoning.

ItsMonkk··on Detroit wants to be the first big American city to tax land value
No. The way taxes work is first you work out how much taxes need to collect, then you work out how much weight everyone has afterwards and split it all up according to that weight. This plan plans to reduce the weight of property and more than double the weight for land.

The city forecasts[0] that the average Detroit homeowner will get a 17% permanent property tax cut in 2025. 97% of all Detroit homeowners will get a tax cut.

[0]: https://detroitmi.gov/departments/office-chief-financial-off...

ItsMonkk··on The Housing Crisis: We Must Tackle Property Wealth Inequality
No.

Tenants always pay for the land value. If a new train station opens up and the costs of an apartment have not changed, you better believe the landlord will raise prices given the raised demand from the new value associated from the train station. The monthly payment that a tenant pays has nothing to do with costs.

The effect whereby taxes are passed on happen because when you tax something you get less of it, and with less of it it moves along the supply and demand curve and so prices rise. Since the supply of land is fixed, this does not happen with land taxes.

The question then becomes do you pay the value to the landlord, or do you pay it to the community?

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