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KellyCriterion

1,083 karma · joined December 7, 2025

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KellyCriterion··on Can you use autoregressive diffusion to generate market data?
WIthin markets the idea "it implies correlation" may be enough to shift your odds from 50/50 to 60/40, which is enough that people with "implying only" are usually fine to dare to enter a position.
KellyCriterion··on Can you use autoregressive diffusion to generate market data?
One of the hottest questions, yes! ++1

And its not that discussed,as Id say: What happens if the number of people interested in buying ETF are shrinking in numbers?

For sure, the liquidity will stay out there - somewhere, somehow. But what impact on stock/index prices?

Boomers now retiring, in most western countries this is the biggest cohort of all time - what happens if they want cash for stocks?

KellyCriterion··on Can you use autoregressive diffusion to generate market data?
> that's a proxy for insider information

Niche information pieces like this are only relevant to a veeeery small subset of all market participants, nearly invisible.

KellyCriterion··on Can you use autoregressive diffusion to generate market data?
Yes, actually there are.

Honestly: People think that "trading models" (whatever this should be) needs to be somewhat "supersophisticated" and "extreme driven by whatever complex math" - the brutal truth, esp. for smaller trading shops is much more simpler:

- Standard approaches like trend following or mean reversion are working very well since decades. (I can speak only for the last ~25 years)

Complexity in trading is not about "building that one specific niche-super-strategy", but more about putting all the ideas in a reproduceable approach/process to repeat it over and over again to grow the money.

KellyCriterion··on Food processing influences metabolism and brain activity
> food growing up in North America.

Which is the second argument of OP, regional/fresh/not long distances etc.

KellyCriterion··on Show HN: Carrier-Explode: iPhone, Pixel and Galaxy carrier settings decoded
Impressive project!

For how long are you running this?

KellyCriterion··on What ArtCraft's Vibe-Coded Apps Say About Adobe
Good luck for the team when it comes down to full PSD-file compatibility...
KellyCriterion··on REA Reverse – Engineer Anything
...and today even adults are served explicitly with all these LEGO editionsn of whatever building or classic car,for above500 USD+ :-D
KellyCriterion··on Trump: Anyone saying "AI" is "THE ENEMY"; The White House uses it
please note, that he wrote it all in caps :-D so we can expect special attention on this :-D
KellyCriterion··on Getting old Macromedia Director Games to run on modern Hardware
Are todays LLM not capable of translating that stuff into modern JS&Co?
KellyCriterion··on Book recommendations from Hacker News?
Petzolds one is a classic one, though somehow hard to read - actually I never finished it :-D
KellyCriterion··on Richard Garriott is officially regaining control of the Ultima series
Great, so he can fix & deliver a patch for U7 II, the one bug that you couldnt finish because you killed by accident the wrong person....
KellyCriterion··on OpenAI annualised revenues $20B less than previously signalled
Because he was in YC/Google/MBA-camp ala "If we have enough traffic, we will find out how to become profitable", since this how the valley thinks :-)
KellyCriterion··on Why isn't the industry freaking out about DeepSeek 4.1 Flash?
That is not exclusive to HRC:

In my country, public figures who are proven to be layman/non-insiders/not-working-in-the-space are speaking publicly about these terms and throwing them around like its the standard tech everybody uses 24/7.

KellyCriterion··on I gave Opus 5.5 one prompt and six hours to visualize Invisible Cities
Access granted for all people who requested.

Wondering: I clicked share & copy link - this should be correct?

KellyCriterion··on I gave Opus 5.5 one prompt and six hours to visualize Invisible Cities
I copied the prompt from the article and inserted it into Claude, here is what it created:

https://claude.ai/share/6bbd421a-147d-435d-bc00-7e93b393b943

(the standalone version at the very end of the chat is the one that runs in the browser)

Well, overall, by faaaaar not that beautiful as what the author from the article received? :-D

(though, it was done with Opus 4.8)

KellyCriterion··on US Suspends Visa Program for Tech Firms Including Microsoft
OK,got this part - this is referring to abusing the employees.

I read the former comment like that they are abusing/missusing the "technical Greencard mechanics" to get their employees past some checks/approvals/permissions/whatever or acquire whatever "special benefits" by working around whatever rules

KellyCriterion··on US Suspends Visa Program for Tech Firms Including Microsoft
> are abusing the employee sponsored green cards

As a foreigner: How does this work and what do they do?

KellyCriterion··on Man discovers his parents' coffee machine used 1TB of data in 10 days
Reg 2:

But why do they need to collect 1 TB? Sounds like a lot of redundant/doublicated entries then for a small network?

KellyCriterion··on Study: Claude, ChatGPT Offer Different Shopping Prices Based on Wealth
Glad, they finally found a usecase for all this price comparison sites to offer "sort by highest price first" :-D
KellyCriterion··on Classic PC demoscene productions running natively in the browser
OP sounds like a ChatGPT answer?
KellyCriterion··on Classic PC demoscene productions running natively in the browser
> probably 8MB of ram at the most. Running it in the browser is probably at least 20 times the memory.

lol, that would be 160MB then, a fraction of what a Firefox Tab consumes and in todays hardware specs its a roundoff error :-D

(while back then you were the ultimate king if you had 8 MB of RAM available at all! :-)

KellyCriterion··on In Vienna and Beijing, the first (thorium) nuclear clocks begin to tick
https://unwall.app/www.nytimes.com/2026/10/07/science/first-...
KellyCriterion··on Claude Code’s suggested message feature: I think the real customer is the model
The thing is:

This comment was there already for a very long time, so "earlier" it was OK.

And noone noticed because since these usings are unused in the code, the compiler didnt complain about missing declaraionts. (if you want to be able to debug dynamic code at runtime and changing it, requires some specific .NET packages included) - and because noone used this dynamic compilation feature for a longer time, we didnt became aware of that its missing

KellyCriterion··on European payments groups join forces to challenge US dominance
Na, what you dont get it, is, how "classic" some banks working in some parts of their backend. Manual steps for non-standard-processes are quite often implemented.

Do not know what this realworld example has to with any of your specs? Apart from that, Im working in this field...

KellyCriterion··on Claude Code’s suggested message feature: I think the real customer is the model
Haha, yesterday I found a problem which I wasnt aware of since the function was not used for longer time. Its about dynamic compilation of a C# file during app runtime. To do this, you need to include some using references at the top, though they are not used in the file itself.

Below this block was a comment: "// DO NOT REMOVE UNUSED usings BECAUSE THEY ARE NEEDED FOR DYNAMIC COMPILATION - DO NOT TOUCH THIS BLOCK !!!!!!!!!

-> Claude has removed the using block in question during its last session :-X

KellyCriterion··on Beating the compiler (2024)
Does hand-optimized(tm) today still play a role?

Apart from some embedded/driver related stuff, Id say you get 90% of the performance fruits just relying on the compiler?

KellyCriterion··on Borland Turbo Basic
Thanks for mentioning!
KellyCriterion··on Borland Turbo Basic
For sure! Delphi is the successor of Turbo Pascal, it came with the same features built-in! :-)
KellyCriterion··on Borland Turbo Basic
OT:

Turbo Pascal was just genius, really!

Esp. the lightspeed compile times, and that you could create a redist exe-file to copy your "highly sophisticated games" to your friends and show them, how cool it is :-))

Good ol times!

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