Of course, they are. If you live in an active conflict zone or in a country with a weak state, then surely that influences gun-related deaths (e.g. armed conflict doesn't require a lot of civilians to have guns. It's hard to control for all these variables. However, this doesn't detract from the fact that, among somewhat similar countries, gun ownership is a very strong predictor of gun-related deaths. It also doesn't detract that, amongst all nations, the US is still a leading country regarding gun deaths
> Which include gun suicides, and so probably shouldn't be included here!
No, they should be included, because gun ownership makes suicide more likely and much easier (see charts 11-13 in [2]): Most suicides are very spontaneous (see effectiveness of suicide fences) and guns make suicides quick and easy.
> gun ownership rates are not as different in Europe as you'd think - US gun ownership rates are only slightly higher than those of Europe. (Not guns per capita, % of population owning guns) Most of Europe and the anglosphere ranges between 20 and 30 % gun ownership
I couldn't find data confirming that. However, there's an interesting bit on Wikipedia on research showing the correlation between gun ownership and violence [3]. Also, this doesn't change the association between number of firearms and gun deaths: More guns also means easier access to guns. Also, owning a gun in Europe is very different: you have to meet very stringent requirements, go through various trainings, and store your guns safely.
It should be obvious that having two deranged, murderous individuals, having easier access to guns, increases the likelihood of a murder.
> If you want to include countries that the US borders like Mexico, great
I'm not sure why that should be important, but just note that it is the availability of weapons in the US, smuggled over the border, which fuels the drug war there.
[3]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gun_ownership#Association_with...