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orwin

4,829 karma · joined August 17, 2017

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orwin··on Fiber lasts decades, GPUs last three years: the AI boom isn't the dot-com boom [video]
I don't want to argue here, but once models are trained, using them is quite cheap. Also in the last few months most improvements I've seen are in the smaller sized models, which might make using models even cheaper.
orwin··on Ask HN: Are you tired too in this AI era?
That's a big issue in my team. We cannot really review tests manually, we already have too much just reviewing the code. And even then, sometimes the 'is this change necessary' question is forgotten or ignored (happened to me 20 minutes ago) because I an tired of fighting my junior+AI. I try to make AI refactor the tests every weeks ande that's it.
orwin··on Proton goes all in on using AI
Do anybody know another email provider easy to use and to migrate to?
orwin··on I went to Mexico to test-drive the cars Americans can’t buy
I don't follow the car industry but I've worked on a project circa 2018 for all European manufacturers to help provide parts 15 years after the car was sold (I provided the Hadoop clusters and some of the predictive algorithms to try to predict which car parts will fail and how many will be needed over the car Lifetime.) BOOST4.0 or something. I don't know where it ended up going.
orwin··on Formlabs Studio 1 $699 Resin Printer
How stiff can you make the resin with those 3d printers ? Probably not as much as carbon fiber, but how does it hold against aluminium or fiberglass? Also, can you do composite fibreglass/resin with 3d printers ?
orwin··on Spain train crash: 'At least 10 dead' in high-speed collision
It is though. It's like the electricity market. We try to liberalize it, we see it doesn't work, so we add regulations and regulators (here the "controller"), and each time there is a failure, we blame regulation or regulators, or both. Sometime when it's too egregious we blame the particular company that was caught fucking up, because blaming the system that allows such fuck ups would cost to much: ideologues in power agreeing to the idea that maybe, market do not work everywhere.

Nice job, i won't get fooled again though.

orwin··on Tesla Semi catches fire on I-880
I think you misread. The article state tesla Semi has had 2 fire in 2 years. The first one because the truck hist stuff and left the road in Nevada, the second (this one, the subject of the article) in California for unknown reasons. This is relevant because the Tesla semi fleet is small (86 vehicles 2 years ago, probably below 500 atm) and because battery fire are hard to stop, so we want to know what caused it. If EV fire last 10 time longer than diesel fire, but happen 10 time less often (we need more studies but it seems this is the initial consensus), this is not really an issue, but if they happen more often, we _need_ to know why and fix it.

Also i don't want trucks to catch fire everytime they hit a cow or a boar, the roads around where i used to live would be consistently closed :/

orwin··on Spain train crash: 'At least 10 dead' in high-speed collision
Failure of 'third way' liberalisation politics explain some of it. Serbia it's way more complicated than that though.
orwin··on Spain train crash: 'At least 10 dead' in high-speed collision
People can say it's 'years of neglect' and might even believe it, but to me it's clear train liberalisation directly caused 2 train incident in Spain this year. Yes trains are slightly cheaper (for now, look at GB to estimate how long the low prices will last), but I'm not so sure the redundancy you pay for in a public monopoly is worthless, especially in areas where an incident can cause this many deaths.
orwin··on A $300B 'Debt Wall' Is Looming over Private-Equity Backed Companies
I'd say over 30% monthly for at least 3 months or over 8% monthly over two years are good targets to call something hyperinflation. Different kind of hyperinflation have different causes and resolve very differently.

2% yoy inflation when assets grow 10% yoy mean reducing the purchasing power of work. Inflation target should be around asset growth if you choose to tax income rather than wealth.

orwin··on A 28-Year-Old DOGE Operative Gutted USAID. HR Had No Record of Him Working There
Look at phoenix program in Vietnam. More recently you have that https://foreignpolicy.com/2014/04/03/cuban-twitter-and-other... .

Also declassified files about mkultra and mknaomi mentioned USAID but I didn't read the specifics so it might not be that bad.

But yeah, I've never read the book you're talking about, but USAID usefulness wasn't so much in medicine and food (which are still important), but in organisational, logistics and administrative support to NGOs that really increases their effectiveness, and especially small NGOs like libraries without borders or OLSF( my cousin directed this one for a few years, that's how I know how useful USAID was)

orwin··on A 28-Year-Old DOGE Operative Gutted USAID. HR Had No Record of Him Working There
USAID was a vehicle for US intelligence. That said, it also helped a lot where it operated. Especially helped logistics and local administration tasks for NGOs which could be extremely bad at those two tasks.

Also USAID existing prevented NGOs to have too much local political power and the corruption that goes with it.

My opinion is that overall, USAID was a net positive, although in some specific cases it wasn't.

orwin··on A $300B 'Debt Wall' Is Looming over Private-Equity Backed Companies
Yes. And bear in mind than default create inflation naturally. When it's productive companies that default, the effect is increased. If PE can't roll their debt, i fear it will increase the dollar inflation really fast, which will have second order effect.

Also since idiots predicted hyperinflation 5-4 years ago and other idiots believed them, we're still before the 'bust' of precious metal prices (We're at the point where people invest in opening new gold/silver mines), which means it will be harded to edge against inflation than it used to be.

orwin··on France asked ISPs to prepare temporary DNS blocks for major social platforms
You should add /s, someone could think you're serious :)
orwin··on Meta Employees Denounce Interference in Brazilian Elections
Also, if you think you're company is enabling musk&co, stay and document. In my city, the antifa group has one member who used to be a bar pillar at a place that after an ownership change became the new place for the néo-nazi and royalists to meet up. Last Saturday they planned on disturbing the protests. We all got the information about that the day before. The day of the protests, we had two watchdogs ready outside the bar who took pictures of the nazillons who got out and dispatched them to various signal groups, allowing engaged people to organise and prevent any disturbance, provocations or fights. My more casual friends didn't notice anything and were very happy about how the day went.

Inside information is critical, and you can always try to do your part.

orwin··on France asked ISPs to prepare temporary DNS blocks for major social platforms
Make property tax progressive based on all owned assets. No one can evade that.
orwin··on No signs of AI payoff outside the tech sector
Even for the code. It will sometimes shit a very complex code for something with a very easy solution, and if you ask why it is so complex, it will invent some reason why. Always on 3 points, the first is true but have nothing to do with the subject, the second is plainly false, and the third is weird bullshit.

Don't get me wrong, I still use it, but the more you do, the more I see the obvious limitations.

orwin··on The 1.5°C goal of the Paris Agreement is no longer viable
> some throwing stones or worse at police, police reacts with batons and teargas

An "appariteur" was caught on video launching rocks at police recently, then when confronted by a parliamentary rejoined someone wearing a bodycam. They aren't hiding anymore. It was then confirmed by the local prosecutor he was from the police.

orwin··on The 1.5°C goal of the Paris Agreement is no longer viable
The prosecutions are not because they camped there, but what about those who were arrested and not prosecuted? just taken into jail, strip searched, then let go outside the police station after a night in jail when nobody can find where they are? Without any prosecution because the police cannot stick them anything? The violence against the police is mostly not ideological, it's caused by a deep anger about how people are treated, getting teargased for nothing, or prevented from moving.

Also now with social media, you can find a lot of example of what are called in France "Appariteurs" who often start the mayhem then leave through police lines without getting arrested.

orwin··on 8 in 10 Americans oppose live-streaming execution
I killed chickens and fishes, but truly, hearing cows cry when their calves are taken away is still heartbreaking. Also seeing the pig moms trying to move to be able to see her children once in her life is extremely uncomfortable.

My philosophy is that I only eat meat I would personally be able to kill, which means chicken, ducks and fishes (probably game too). I still avoid battery chicken though.

orwin··on Linux 7.3
Linux is not fire and forget for people who use technology without really understanding it, but for people who don't use technology and just need to check their mails and connect to government website to pay their taxes, it is the best.

Once it's configured for these kind of people, it's really fire and forget, and it was already that in 2016.

orwin··on The plight of the public potty
In cities, I agree that if you aren't used to it, it might be inconvenient.

However, 99% of hikers in Europe carry their own trash bags. It took off in the early 2000 and now it's almost a culture thing, especially amongst young hikers, and not having one is basically a social error (well, littering is, you can always ask people for an empty trash bag if you forgot yours). Honestly I can see why they choose that solution.

orwin··on The Elizabeth Holmes documentary “You Can See Everything” is deceiving
It's manufactured incompetence. You can see it a lot in companies who use a lot of subcontractors.
orwin··on Israeli settlers attack olive framers & Washington Post journalist in West Bank
"leftist islamists" is the new "Bolchevic jews", and i consider the people using the first to have a similar* ideology to the one who used the second 90 years ago.

*Not the exact same, but the details would be lost here.

orwin··on Tesla Roadster
(i do not think he's a nazi, I think he is an edge lord who dogwhistle to Nazis to look 'cool'. Which honestly is fine for a teenager influencer, but should stop once you're 25)
orwin··on Xi's 'death watch' will become a global spectacle
Hopefully not. Xi could have been as good for China as Deng Xiaoping was. After his elections, he ousted the military out of the CCP parliament, and despite what our media said, it was a good thing for the world stability (and also why the 'china will invade Taiwan' discourse to me was a sign of a simple mind).

However the last 10 years I'm not impressed, even if I ignore the Uyghur genocide and hongkong political repression (and I don't). The number of millionaires in the Chinese parliament grew extremely fast. The CCP is older and while it never truly represented China, it is even less diverse than it used to be. The parliament is richer, older and more masculine than it ever was, and the politburo is even worse. The obvious issues from China's rural areas stayed ignored for years, and the only way the politburo addressed it was on a very limited way, through a genocide (not a violent one, so it is palatable to their intelligentsia, but still a genocide).

Still, I think the author is too hard on China. Xi and his government still have to have the parliament support, and it can be lost quickly. Xi's death won't suddenly make the 2.5k parliament member quits and take arms. Most of them are from the economic elites (farm/boat/factory owners), and wouldn't support any kind of local mayhem.

orwin··on Fable Took My Job
My company pay a copilot subscription to everyone, plus my team have a bedrock subscription that cost us 7k last month. In the meantime, some guys created a new internal team and are testing open source models (for our red team) on our own hardware (we didn't sold our 'old', 3 year old servers RAM/CPU, so the only investment was GPUs). My guess is that within the next 6 months our red team will use open source models exclusively, and my team will probably follow within two years. Especially if the GPU prices go down
orwin··on Anger as man sentenced to death for Facebook comment
Clearly mentally ill people should get the benefit of the doubt for nonviolent offenses. Also, not a max security prison.
orwin··on Will AI kill us all
Are you talking about LLMs+harnesses? No. The day a LLM can play chess without harness, or make it's own harness I might listen to you, until then I'll work on actual threats. No object permanence makes any world conquering _really_ difficult.
orwin··on Will AI kill us all
Climate change was killing hundreds yesterday, is killing tens of thousands today, and if the trend continues, will kill millions tomorrow. AI made like 5 people kill themselves today. Pardon me if I don't pay attention to the mellow threat and want to focus on the iss that actually threaten us.
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